United Kingdom (UK) Food and Grocery Market to 2024

The UK Food & Grocery report offers a comprehensive insight into the food & grocery market in the UK, analysing the sector, the major players, the main trends, and consumer attitudes; as well as providing forecasts out to 2024. Consumer data is based on our 2019 UK How Britain Shops survey, using a panel of 10,000 nationally representative consumers.

UK Food & Grocery spend is expected to rise by 15.0% to £174.5bn in 2024, ahead of the growth seen in 2014-2019 as macro-economic conditions are set to improve and the lure of the discounters Aldi and Lidl begin to wane. However, while a recovery in volume growth is forecast, overall market growth will remain driven by inflationary pressures over the next five years.

Scope

– The UK food & grocery market is forecast to grow 15.0% between 2019-2024 – considerably higher than that achieved in the five years prior – as macroeconomic uncertainty drives inflation across core categories.

– The future of the UK’s relationship with the EU post-Brexit will be pivotal for food operators, with a no-deal Brexit likely to cause elevated inflation levels (as a result of imposed tariffs) and issues around availability.

– Sustainability is becoming an increasingly visible metric against which consumers rate supermarkets, with 93.5% of UK consumers stating that it is the responsibility of retailers to act sustainably.

– With almost a quarter of all consumers identifying as having a dietary requirement, supermarkets now need to fully integrate free-from ranges into their proposition, rather than considering it an optional extra.

– While l-f-l sales growth at the discounters is beginning to show signs of slowing, aggressive expansion plans from Aldi and Lidl – coupled with growing consumer awareness of the food proposition at non-food specialists such as B&M and Poundland – will see the discounter channel grow 25.0% over the next five years.

Reasons to buy

– Understand the dynamics of the food & grocery market and identify fast-growing sub-sectors, allowing you to tailor your sales mix to better meet the needs of your customers.

– Gain insight into the far-reaching trends affecting the food & grocery market – including the impact of Brexit, the importance of sustainability investment, and the need for retailers to adapt quicker to changing diets – to allow you to better prepare strategies for long-term success.

– Learn how the major players are investing in the online channel, enabling you to evaluate the importance of online delivery to your customers and how to adapt to the changing landscape.

– See how non-food discounter specialists, such as B&M, are posing a threat to traditional food retailers, and reveal how best to fend off competition from price-orientated rivals.

Companies mentioned

Aldi

ASDA

B&M

Birds Eye

Co-op

Deliveroo

Home Bargains

Iceland

Just Eat

Lidl

M&S

McColl’s

Morrisons

Nisa

Poundland

Quorn

Sainsbury’s

Tesco

Waitrose & Partners

Walkers

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

THE HOT ISSUES

Market drivers and inhibitors in food & grocery

Main issues in food & grocery

Availability impact of a no-deal Brexit in January remains greatest macro-economic concern for supermarkets

Despite adverse external pressures, retailers need to protect margins to enable quicker investment in strategy

Sustainability investment must be tempered

Retailers must adapt faster to changing diet requirements

Strategies for success

WHAT PEOPLE BUY

Headlines

The sector at a glance

Overall sector size

Overall sector growth

Category dynamics: Food

Category dynamics: Food by storage

Food: Sub-category growth

Category dynamics: Tobacco & e-cigarettes

Tobacco & e-cigarettes: Sub-category growth

Category dynamics: Alcoholic drinks

Alcoholic drinks: Sub-category growth

Category dynamics: Soft drinks

Category dynamics: Household products

Category dynamics: Hot drinks

Spend per head

Online dynamics

WHERE PEOPLE SHOP

Channels of distribution

Market shares of major food & grocery retailers

Historic market shares of major food & grocery retailers

Top ten most visited retailers for food & grocery

Top ten most purchased from retailers for food & grocery

Retailer profiles

ASDA

Morrisons

Sainsbury’s

Tesco

Aldi

Lidl

Co-op

Marks & Spencer

Waitrose & Partners

Iceland

Competitor dynamics

HOW PEOPLE SHOP

Who shops and where they are located

Which categories they buy

Channels used by consumers

Fulfilment methods used by consumers

Frequency of shopping

WHY PEOPLE SHOP

What’s important when purchasing food & grocery

Likelihood of recommending a retailer

METHODOLOGY

What is included

Market sizing

List of Tables

List of Tables

Food & grocery market expenditure by category, 2019e and 2024e

Spend per head on food & grocery by age group, 2019

Food & grocery expenditure by channel, 2019e and 2024e

Market shares for top 10 food & grocery retailers, 2014-2019e

Competitor overlap for top 10 players, 2019

Penetration by subcategory, 2019

Shopper profile by subcategory, 2019

Penetration by food storage type, 2019

Shopper profile by food storage type, 2019

Channel usage by demographic (instore, online, mail order & catalogue), 2019

Store format usage by demographic (out-of-town, town centre, convenience, online), 2019

Fulfilment methods used by demographic (home delivery, click & collect, third-party pickup), 2019

Factors of importance when purchasing food & grocery by demographic, 2019

Factors of importance when purchasing food & grocery by most used retailer, 2019

List of Figures

List of Figures

Impact of Brexit outcome on UK food & grocery market growth, 2020e-2022e

Percentage point change in operating margin of selected supermarkets, 2015-2018

Subsector growth in food & grocery, 2019e-2024e

Overall food & grocery: size of the market 2014-2024e

Overall food & grocery: growth rates 2014-2024e

Food: category size and growth rates, 2014-2024e

Food subsector expenditure and growth by storage type, 2014, 2019e and 2024e

Food: expenditure and growth by subcategory, 2014, 2019e and 2024e

Tobacco & e-cigarettes: category size and growth rates, 2014-2024e

Tobacco & e-cigarettes: expenditure and growth by subcategory, 2014, 2019e and 2024e

Alcoholic drinks: category size and growth rates, 2014-2024e

Alcoholic drinks: expenditure and growth by subcategory, 2014, 2019e and 2024e

Soft drinks: category size and growth rates, 2014-2024e

Household products: category size and growth rates, 2014-2024e

Hot drinks: category size and growth rates, 2014-2024e

Food & grocery spend per head, 2019-2024e

Online food & grocery penetration, 2014-2024e

Online food & grocery size and growth rates, 2014-2024e

Channel splits for food & grocery, 2019e and 2024e

Market shares of the top 10 food & grocery retailers, 2018 and 2019e

Top 10 most visited food & grocery retailers, 2018 and 2019

Top 10 most purchased from food & grocery retailers, 2018 and 2019

ASDA: consumer dynamics and where else they shop, 2019

ASDA: food & grocery market share, 2014-2019e

Morrisons: consumer dynamics and where else they shop, 2019

Morrisons: food & grocery market share, 2014-2019e

Sainsbury’s: consumer dynamics and where else they shop, 2019

Sainsbury’s: food & grocery market share, 2014-2019e

Tesco: consumer dynamics and where else they shop, 2019

Tesco: food & grocery market share, 2014-2019e

Aldi: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2019e

Lidl: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2019e

Co-op: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2019e

Marks & Spencer: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2019e

Waitrose & Partners: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2019e

Iceland: UK sales, store numbers and market share, 2019e

Food & grocery penetration, by demographic and region, 2019

Profile of food & grocery shoppers by demographic and region, 2019

Frequency of food & grocery purchases by demographic, 2019

Factors of importance when purchasing food & grocery, 2018 and 2019

Likelihood of recommending a retailer to a friend for top 10 retailers, 2019

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