UK Retail Sector Summary Forecasts to 2019

Brief review of economic trends and how they impact retail, explaining how we believe key economic metrics will evolve over the next five years Forecasts of how overall retail and retail sectors will fare over the next five years, examining volume, inflation and overall growth rates Category level forecasts are provided to fully inform growth strategies


Verdict forecasts overall UK retail will grow by 16.5% over the next five years, double that of the previous five (8.0%).

The improving economy, consumer confidence and population growth will all drive higher spending.

Home-related sectors will return to growth and start to take more share of overall spending as the housing market improves.

Reasons to buy

How will the economic recovery impact my retail sector and when

Which retail sectors will perform the best through 2014–19 Which sectors should my business focus on

How will fast will online sales penetration grow over the next five years

Which sectors will be most impacted by high unemployment

Will inflation reach the 2.0% BoE target, and what will happen as a result How long will this last, and will it stimulate a rise in interest rates

Table of Contents

1 Overview

2 Summary

2.1 Definitions

2.2 Key findings

2.2.1 Growth drivers

2.2.2 Growth inhibitors

2.3 Strategies for success

2.3.1 The customer must be central to retail strategies

3 Retail Expenditure Summary

3.1 Highest five-year growth rate since 2002–07

4 UK Economic Forecasts

4.1 Economic stability returns

4.1.1 Employment continues to rise

4.1.2 Interest rate rise threatens

4.1.3 Low inflation eases pressure on consumers’ wallets

4.1.4 Consumers save less as confidence returns

4.1.5 Improved housing market supports growth in home related sectors

5 Online Expenditure

5.1 Definition

5.2 Summary

5.2.1 Online set to take

16.9% share of total retail spend in 2020

6 Methodology

7 Appendix

7.1 About Verdict Retail

7.2 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: UK retail expenditure definition, 2015

Table 2: UK online expenditure definition, 2015

List of Figures

Figure 1: UK retail expenditure (£bn) and growth (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 2: UK retail expenditure (£bn) and year-on-year growth (%), 2010–20e

Figure 3: UK retail expenditure growth drivers (%), 2010–20e

Figure 4: UK retail expenditure sector shares (%), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 5: UK retail expenditure sector changes (£bn), 2020e on 2015

Figure 6: UK retail expenditure sector growth (%), 2015–20e

Figure 7: UK retail expenditure, food & non-food shares (%), 2010, 2015e and 2020e

Figure 8: UK gross domestic product (£m) and growth year-on-year (%), 2010–20e

Figure 9: UK employment numbers (millions) and growth year-on-year (%), 2010–20e

Figure 10: UK unemployment numbers (millions) and share of economically active (%), 2010–20e

Figure 11: Earnings growth and CPI inflation (%), 2011–14

Figure 12: UK interest rates (%), 2010–20e

Figure 13: UK inflation growth year-on-year (%), 2010–20e

Figure 14: UK savings ratio (%), 2010–20e

Figure 15: England and Wales housing transactions (000s) and growth year-on-year (%), 2005–20e

Figure 16: England and Wales housing average prices (£) and growth year-on-year (%), 2010–20e

Figure 17: UK online expenditure (£bn) and growth year-on-year (%), 2010–20e

Figure 18: UK online sector expenditure (£bn), 2015e and 2020e

Figure 19: UK online sector growth (%), 2015–20e e

Figure 20: UK online spending as a share of total sector spending (%), 2015

Figure 21: UK online spending as a share of total sector spending (%), 2020e


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