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Type 2 Diabetes – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, or T2D for short, refers to a defect in insulin secretion and sensitivity, whereby the β-cells in the pancreas fail to secrete sufficient amounts of insulin and cells fail to uptake adequate amounts of insulin due to loss of sensitivity, commonly referred to as insulin resistance. The dysfunction of pancreatic β-cells is thought to be caused by a defect in their signaling, resulting in raised blood sugar (hypoglycemia), which over time leads to multiple comorbidities requiring continuous medical vigilance. Many of the current therapies for T2D are unable to alter the disease’s natural course, with glycemic control deteriorating over time, resulting in complex treatment regimens

New therapies entering the market will be a main driver of growth, with recently launched GLP-1RA Rybelsus (oral semaglutide) is likely to obtain a large share of the non-insulin T2D drug market and biosimilar and oral insulins are likely to obtain a large market share from their costly branded originators. Other major drivers for the T2D market are the increasing prevalence of obesity and the increasing prevalence of cardiovascular and kidney disease . Based on epidemiological analysis by GlobalData, the number of diagnosed prevalent cases of T2D will grow 25.93% over the forecast period, at an AGR of 2.3%, from 171,547,536 cases in 2019 to 216,029,212 cases by 2029 across the nine major pharmaceutical markets covered in this report, the US, 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK), Japan, India and China.

GlobalData projects that the marketplace for T2D within the 9MM will grow from $48bn in 2019 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7% to $91.9B by 2029. In particular, GlobalData expects US market will contribute the most to the antidiabetic market’s growth, contributing sales in $28B sales in 2019 (58% of the global antidiabetic market) and $57B in 2029 (62% of the global antidiabetic market).

In terms of the current treatment landscape, the consensus among interviewed physicians was that although they have a number of efficacious treatment options at their disposal, there are still patients that remain unable to achieve optimal glycemic control, address insulin resistance and reverse or slow the decline in β-cell function. Additionally, KOLs interviewed by GlobalData highlighted the lack of treatment options for patients with T2D and complex comorbidities such as cardiorenal disease, an extremely important unmet need. Another major issue mentioned is the cost of insulin treatment, with a strong need for controls on insulin drug pricing and a fair price for biosimilar/interchangeable insulins.

In addition, drug classes across the T2D marketplace often have poor side-effect profiles and there is an urgent need to broaden the drugs available to T2D patients to allow for safer and more tailored therapies. Despite a number of drugs currently in development, GlobalData’s research suggests that the future level of attainment of these unmet needs will be modest, and a relatively high level of opportunity exists for drug developers to enter the T2D market.

KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED

Despite the existence of numerous well-established treatment options in the T2D space, a few—yet significant—unmet needs remain.

• Which unmet needs are the most pressing in the 9MM?

• Where should pharmaceutical companies focus drug development efforts in order to become a significant player in the space?

The T2D market has been overcrowded by drug developers launching ‘Me-Too’ therapies for many years, though more recently, clinical development activity has resulted in more innovative treatments

• What are the most promising late-stage candidates and how much in sales are they expected to generate over the forecast period?

• What do KOLs say about their clinical and commercial positioning?

T2D remains a highly prevalent condition, and there are many new and emerging players entering the space, as well as more established companies developing novel therapies

• Which companies have been leading the way, historically?

• What new companies are emerging in the space?

Scope

Overview of T2D: including epidemiology, disease etiology and management.

Topline T2D drugs market revenue, annual cost of therapy, and anticipated sales for major late-stage pipeline drugs.

Key topics covered include assessment of current and pipeline therapies, unmet needs, current and future players and market outlook for the US, 5EU, Japan, India and China over the 10-year forecast period.

Pipeline analysis: Emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline drugs.

Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global T2D therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges.

Key Highlights

The proportion of people at risk of developing T2D is expected to increase over the 10-year forecast period due to an increased life expectancy coupled with rapid socioeconomic change, increased prevalence of obesity and the increased prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) disease

The potential launch of 6 late-stage pipeline agents will increase the number of patients who can be offered pharmacological treatment options. In addition, three of these drugs in late-stage development are expected to have a high annual cost of therapy (ACOT), a factor that will contribute to notable profitability.

Cardiorenal disease is being increasingly recognized in clinical practice and there has been a renewed interest among the medical community to understand the pathophysiological mechanisms underpinning its pathogenesis.

Despite the plethora of therapies currently available to T2D patients, there is still room for improvement within the treatment space. The most recognizable is the need for novel treatment options for patients unable to achieve optimal glycemic control.

Reasons to Buy

The report will enable you to:

Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies, using a detailed overview of current pipeline products and technologies to identify companies with the most robust pipelines.

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global type 2 diabetes therapeutics market.

Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global type 2 diabetes market in the future.

Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.

Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.

Track drug sales in the global type 2 diabetes therapeutics market from 2019-2029.

Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

Key Players

Eli Lilly

Novo Nordisk

Sanofi

AstraZeneca

Merck & Co.

Boehringer Ingelheim

GlaxoSmithKline

Takeda

Roche

Pfizer

Johnson & Johnson

Novartis

Theracos

Lexicon Pharmaceuticals

Hua Medicine Shanghai Ltd

Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co Ltd

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co Ltd.

Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group

Biocon Ltd

Oramed Pharamceuticals

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Type 2 Diabetes (T2D): Executive Summary

2.1 Continued, Significant Growth in the T2D Market, With Drug Sales Expected to Almost Double Across the 9MM by the End of the Forecast Period

2.2 T2D Developers Battle for Share in an Increasingly Crowded Market

2.3 Decrease in Sales Among Branded T2D Drugs Across the 9MM

2.4 Glucagon-Like Peptide -1 Receptor Agonist Class Faces Intense Internal Competition, Largely Revolving Around Drugs’ Ability to Improve Patient Compliance/Ease of Administration and Reduced Risk of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events

2.5 Label Expansions for SGLT-2 Inhibitors

2.6 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

4 Disease Overview

4.1 Etiology

4.2 Pathophysiology

4.3 Symptoms

4.4 Prognosis and Quality of Life

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

5.3 Global and Historical Trends

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.4.1 Sources

5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

5.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Prevalent Cases of CKD Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

5.4.4 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Prevalent Cases of CVD Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

5.4.5 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Prevalent Cases of Obesity Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

5.4.6 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Prevalent Cases of Hypertension Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

5.4.7 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

5.4.8 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Prevalent Cases of Atherosclerosis Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Type 2 Diabetes (2018–2028)

5.5.1 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

5.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

5.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

5.5.4 Comorbidities Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

5.6 Discussion

5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

5.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis

5.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis

6 Disease Management

6.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview

6.2 US

6.3 5EU

6.3.1 France

6.3.2 Germany

6.3.3 Italy

6.3.4 Spain

6.3.5 UK

6.4 Japan

6.5 China

6.6 India

7 Competitive Assessment

7.1 Overview

8 Unmet Needs and Opportunities

8.1 Overview

8.2 Disease-Modifying Treatments Providing Sustained Glycemic Control

8.3 Drugs with Non-glycemic Benefits

8.4 Drugs with Improved Side-Effect Profiles

8.5 Increased Patient Compliance

8.6 Drugs for the Emergent T2D Pediatric Population

8.7 Controls on Insulin Drug Pricing and the Need for Fairly Priced Biologics

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview

9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development

10 Current and Future Players

10.1 Overview

10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy

10.3 Company Profiles

10.3.1 Eli Lilly

10.3.2 Novo Nordisk

10.3.3 Sanofi

10.3.4 AstraZeneca

10.3.5 Merck & Co.

10.3.6 Boehringer Ingelheim

10.3.7 GlaxoSmithKline

10.3.8 Takeda

10.3.9 Roche

10.3.10 Pfizer

10.3.11 Johnson & Johnson

10.3.12 Novartis

10.3.13 Theracos

10.3.14 Lexicon Pharmaceuticals

10.3.15 Hua Medicine Shanghai Ltd

10.3.16 Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co Ltd.

10.3.17 Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co Ltd.

10.3.18 Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Ltd

10.3.19 Torrent Pharmaceuticals

10.3.20 Biocon Ltd.

10.3.21 Oramed Pharmaceuticals

10.3.22 Chipscreen Biosciences Ltd

10.3.23 CSPC Zhongnuo Pharmaceutical (Shijiazhuang) Co Ltd.

11 Market Outlook

11.1 Global Markets

11.1.1 Forecast

11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers – Global Issues

11.2 US

11.2.1 Forecast

11.2.2 Key Events

11.2.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.3 5EU

11.3.1 Forecast

11.3.2 Key Events

11.3.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.4 Japan

11.4.1 Forecast

11.4.2 Key Events

11.4.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.5 China

11.5.1 Forecast

11.5.2 Key Events

11.5.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.6 India

11.6.1 Forecast

11.6.2 Key Events

11.6.3 Drivers and Barriers

12 Appendix

12.1 Bibliography

12.2 Abbreviations

12.3 Methodology

12.4 Forecasting Methodology

12.4.1 Diagnosed T2D Patients

12.4.2 Percent Drug-Treated Patients

12.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class

12.4.4 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates

12.4.5 General Pricing Assumptions

12.4.6 Individual Drug Assumptions

12.4.7 Generic Erosion

12.4.8 Pricing of Pipeline Agents

12.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study

12.6 About the Authors

12.6.1 Healthcare Analyst

12.6.2 Therapy Associate Director

12.6.3 Therapy Area Director

12.6.4 Epidemiologists

12.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

12.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

12.7 About GlobalData

12.8 Contact Us

12.9 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: T2D: Key Metrics in the Nine Major Pharmaceutical Markets

Table 2: Primary Pathophysiologic Conditions Associated with T2D

Table 3: Symptoms of T2D presents an overview of the most frequently observed symptoms for T2D.

Table 4: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for T2D

Table 5: Diagnostic Tests and Typical Criteria for Diagnosing T2D

Table 6: Country Profile, T2D Management, US

Table 7: Country Profile, T2D Management, France

Table 8: Country Profile, T2D Management, Germany

Table 9: Absence of Typical T2D Symptoms, Italy

Table 10: Individuals with Increased Risk of T2D, Italy

Table 11: Country Profile, T2D Management, Italy

Table 12: Country Profile, T2D Management, Spain

Table 13: Country Profile, T2D Management, UK

Table 14: Country Profile, T2D Management, Japan

Table 15: Country Profile, T2D Management, China

Table 16: Country Profile, T2D Management, India

Table 17: Leading Branded Treatments for T2D, 2020

Table 18: Eli Lilly’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 19: Novo Nordisk’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 20: Sanofi’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 21: AstraZeneca’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 22: Merck’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 23: BI’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 24: GSK’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 25: Takeda’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 26: Roche’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 27: Pfizer’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 28: J&J’s T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 29: Novartis’ T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 30: Theracos’ T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 31: Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc. T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 32: Hua Medicine Shanghai T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 33: Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co Ltd. T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 34: Jiagnsu Hengrui Medicine Ltd T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 35: Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Ltd T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 36: Torrent Pharmaceuticals T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 37: Biocon Ltd. T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 38: Oramed Pharmaceuticals T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 39: Chipscreen Biosciences Ltd. T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 40: CSPC Zhongnuo Pharmaceutical (Shijiazhuang) Co Ltd, T2D Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 41: T2D Market – Drivers and Barriers, 2020

Table 42: Key Events Impacting Sales for T2D in the US, 2019–2029

Table 43: T2D Market – Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2020

Table 44: Key Events Impacting Sales for T2D in the 5EU, 2019–2029

Table 45: T2D Market – Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2020

Table 46: Key Events Impacting Sales for T2D in Japan, 2019–2029

Table 47: T2D Market – Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2020

Table 48: Key Events Impacting Sales for T2D in China, 2019–2029

Table 49: T2D Market – Drivers and Barriers in China, 2020

Table 50: Key Events Impacting Sales for T2D in India, 2019–2029

Table 51: T2D Market – Drivers and Barriers in India, 2020

Table 52: Key Launch Dates

Table 53: Key Patent Expiries

Table 54: Number of High-Prescribing Physicians Surveyed

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global Sales By Region (Type 2 Diabetes) 2019 and 2029

Figure 2: Company Portfolio Gap Analysis in T2D, 2019–2029

Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage (Phase III) Pipeline Agents in T2D, 2019–2029

Figure 4: T2D Pathophysiology

Figure 5: 9MM, Diagnosed Prevalence of T2D (%), Men, All Ages, 2018

Figure 6: 9MM, Diagnosed Prevalence of T2D (%), Women, All Ages, 2018

Figure 7: 9MM, Sources Used and Not Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

Figure 8: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of CKD Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

Figure 9: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of CVD Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

Figure 10: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of Obesity Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

Figure 11: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of Hypertension Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

Figure 12: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

Figure 13: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Prevalent Cases of Atherosclerosis Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D

Figure 14: 9MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 15: 9MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, N, 2018

Figure 16: 9MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 17: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of CKD Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 18: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of CVD Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 19: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Obesity Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 20: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Hypertension Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 21: 9MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 22: 9MM, Prevalent Cases of Atherosclerosis Among the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of T2D, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 23: ADA Treatment Algorithm for Antihyperglycemic Therapy in T2D

Figure 24: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in T2D

Figure 25: Pipeline Agents in Development for T2D

Figure 26: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents That GlobalData Expects to be Licensed for T2D in the 9MM During the Forecast Period

Figure 27: Company Portfolio Gap Analysis in T2D, 2019–2029

Figure 28: Global Sales for T2D by Country/Region, 2019 and 2029

Figure 29: Sales for T2D in the US by Drug Class, 2019 and 2029

Figure 30: Sales for T2D in the 5EU by Drug Class, 2019 and 2029

Figure 31: Sales for T2D in Japan by Drug Class, 2019 and 2029

Figure 32: Sales for T2D in China by Drug Class, 2019 and 2029

Figure 33: Sales for T2D in India by Drug Class, 2019 and 2029

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