Middle East Renewables 2021 – Renewable Energy Policy, Investment and Projects in the Middle East and North Africa – MEED Insights

Despite the devastating impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the outlook for investment in the Middle East’s renewable energy sector is bright. The long-term rise in demand for energy remains undimmed by the pandemic, while the need to diversify energy sources and to decarbonise the economy to combat climate change has put renewables at the top of the energy policy agenda. At the same time, new technologies, such as green hydrogen, are catching the eye of policymakers and investors.

While the Middle East lags major markets such as China, Europe and the US in the scale of renewables investment, the world’s largest and cheapest solar projects are now found in Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Dubai. While Egypt, Jordan and Morocco have built significant renewable energy capacity. The region’s ambition is to be a hub for the development of renewable energy and alternative fuels.

With about 28GW of renewable energy production capacity installed across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena), of which by far the biggest component is hydropower with 21GW, renewable energy represents only 7 per cent of the region’s power generation capacity. But with electricity demand rising at about 5 per cent a year, and with a shortage of readily available natural gas supplies, expanding renewables capacity is one of the top policy priorities for governments in the region.

Boosted by falling technology costs and the drive to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, most countries are planning and procuring solar and wind projects. Across the region, governments have set ambitious clean energy targets, with Dubai the most aggressive, aiming for 75 per cent of its energy to come from clean sources by 2050. At the start of 2021, about 98GW of new renewable energy generation capacity was planned across the region, with 39GW of additional capacity due to come on stream by 2025.

Over the past 12 months, the desire for a ‘green’ recovery from the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has provided impetus for a wave of ventures and projects to produce hydrogen fuel in the Middle East. In particular, tapping the region’s abundant supply of low-cost solar energy to sustainably produce ‘green’ hydrogen from water is generating huge interest from governments and investors.

Hydrogen is the latest alternative fuel to emerge in the Middle East’s renewable energy journey and in many ways is in a similar place to the one held by solar and wind energy a decade ago. As with solar ten years ago, hydrogen fuel in 2021 is expensive to produce compared with fossil fuels, and there is only a limited market for the low-carbon fuel. But solar energy production costs have tumbled over the past decade, while regulatory changes have reduced the commercial risk of investing in renewables. It is a trend that will continue, and which is supporting the region’s energy diversification as new technology emerges making clean fuels commercially and technologically viable.

Scope

Written by MEED, the Middle East market experts within the GlobalData Group, “Middle East Renewables 2021” provides a comprehensive country-by-country guide to the Middle East’s renewable energy sector with in-depth analysis of investments, policy and legislative frameworks, and the projects planned and under way. The report a valuable asset for anyone doing business in the Middle East energy sector.

Reasons to buy

Detailed assessment of the opportunities for business in the Middle East’s renewable energy sector

Comprehensive review of renewable energy projects in the Mena region

Assessment of renewable investment programmes in the region

Assessment of the key policies and organisations drive renewable energy in the Middle East and North Africa

Review of the impact of Covid-19 on the renewable energy sector

Outlook for renewable energy policy and investment

The report covers all sources of renewable energy including solar, wind, hydro-electric and waste-to-energy, as well as alternative fuels

Special focus on the potential of green hydrogen in the region

Projects opportunities with client and procurement details

Investment drivers and client spending plans

Understand risks and set strategy in the renewable energy sector

Complete assessment of the outlook for the solar, wind and other renewable energy sources across the Middle East and North Africa

Detailed analysis of sustainable energy strategies and renewables projects in 14 markets across the Middle East and North Africa

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

1.1 Decarbonising the Middle East

1.1.1 The decarbonisation agenda

1.1.2 Gulf oil pushes carbon capture

1.2 The impact of Covid-19

1.3 The impact of Covid-19 on demand for renewable energy

1.4 Outlook for Middle East renewables

1.5 Targets

1.6 Drivers

1.6.1 Capacity

1.6.2 Localisation

1.7 Technology costs

1.8 Economic growth

1.9 Financing models

1.10 Other initiatives

1.10.1 Hydrogen key to Abu Dhabi’s energy transition

1.10.2 Small-scale solar

1.10.3 Solar desalination

1.10.4 Hydrogen fuel economy

2. Technology

2.1 Solar

2.1.1 Photovoltaic

2.1.2 Concentrated solar power (CSP)

2.1.3 Integrated solar combined-cycle (ISCC)

2.1.4 Solar-powered desalination

2.2 Wind

2.3 Cost of renewables

2.4 Waste-to-energy

2.5 Hydrogen energy

2.6 Energy storage and grid integration

2.7 Digitalisation and smart grids

3. Algeria

3.1 Overview

3.2 Structure

3.3 Renewable capacity and generation

3.3.1 Installed renewable capacity

3.3.2 Renewable power generation

3.3.3 Generation capacity challenges

3.4 Renewable energy policy

3.5 Projects

3.5.1 Renewable projects under execution

3.5.2 Upcoming renewable projects

3.6 Key contacts

4. Bahrain

4.1 Market overview

4.1.1 Impact of Covid-19

4.2 Market structure

4.2.1 Government

4.3 Renewable capacity and generation

4.3.1 Installed renewable capacity

4.3.2 Renewable power generation

4.4 Renewable energy policy

4.5 Projects

4.6 Key contacts

5. Egypt

5.1 Market overview

5.2 Market structure

5.2.1 Government

5.3 Renewable capacity and generation

5.4 Renewable energy policy

5.4.1 Fuel and alternative energy

5.4.2 Targets

5.4.3 Feed-in tariff (FIT) programme

5.4.4 Renewables procurement models

5.5 Projects

5.5.1 Solar power projects

5.5.2 Wind power projects

5.6 Key contacts

6. Iran

6.1 Overview

6.2 Structure

6.2.1 Government

6.2.2 Private sector

6.3 Renewable capacity and generation

6.3.1 Installed renewable capacity

6.3.2 Renewable power generation

6.4 Renewable energy policy

6.4.1 Fuel & alternative energy

6.5 Projects

6.5.1 Solar projects

6.5.2 Wind projects

6.5.3 Waste-to-energy projects

6.6 Key contacts

7. Iraq

7.1 Overview

7.2 Structure

7.2.1 Government

7.2.2 Private sector

7.3 Renewable capacity and generation

7.3.1 Installed renewable capacity

7.3.2 Renewable power generation

7.4 Renewable energy policy

7.5 KRG region

7.5.1 Overview

7.5.2 Structure

7.5.3 Renewable energy policy

7.6 Projects

7.6.1 Renewable projects planned and underway

7.7 Key contacts

8. Jordan

8.1 Market overview

8.1.1 Impact of Covid-19

8.2 Market structure

8.2.1 Government

8.2.2 Private power

8.2.3 Sector reform

8.3 Renewable capacity and generation

8.3.1 Installed renewable capacity

8.3.2 Renewable power generation

8.4 Renewable energy policy

8.5 Projects

8.5.1 Major renewable projects under execution

8.5.2 Upcoming renewable energy projects

8.5.3 Renewable projects (operation/completed)

8.5.4 Storage project

8.5.5 International electrical interconnection

8.6 Key contacts

9. Kuwait

9.1 Market overview

9.2 Market structure

9.2.1 Government

9.2.2 Private sector

9.2.3 Sector reform

9.3 Renewable capacity and generation

9.3.1 Installed renewable capacity

9.3.2 Renewable power generation

9.4 Renewable energy policy

9.4.1 Renewable energy status in Kuwait

9.5 Projects

9.5.1 Major upcoming renewable energy projects

9.5.2 Major cancelled/on hold renewable projects

9.5.4 Other renewable energy initiatives

9.6 Key contacts

10. Morocco

10.1 Market overview

10.1.1 Impact of Covid-19

10.2 Market structure

10.2.1 Government

10.2.2 Private power

10.2.3 Sector reform

10.3 Renewable capacity and generation

10.3.1 Installed renewable capacity and generation

10.3.2 Challenges

10.4 Renewable energy policy

10.4.1 Solar power

10.4.2 Wind power

10.5 Projects

10.5.1 Solar projects under execution

10.5.2 Upcoming solar projects

10.5.3 Wind power projects

10.5.4 Waste-to-energy project

10.5.5 Hydro power projects

10.6 Key contacts

11. Oman

11.1 Overview

11.2 Structure

11.2.1 Government

11.2.2 Private sector

11.3 Renewable capacity and generation

11.3.1 Installed renewable capacity

11.3.2 Renewable power generation

11.4 Renewable energy policy

11.4.1 Targets

11.5 Projects

11.5.1 Renewable projects under execution

11.5.2 Upcoming renewable projects

11.6 Key contacts

12. Qatar

12.1 Market overview

12.2 Market structure

12.2.1 Government

12.2.2 Private power programme

12.3 Renewable capacity and generation

12.3.1 Installed renewable capacity

12.3.2 Renewable power generation

12.3.3 Solar potential

12.4 Renewable energy policy

12.4.1 Targets and initiatives

12.5 Projects

12.6 Key contacts

13. Saudi Arabia

13.1 Market overview

13.2 Market structure

13.2.1 Government

13.2.2 Private power

13.3 Renewable capacity and generation

13.4 Renewable energy policy

13.4.1 Historical overview

13.5 Projects

13.5.1 Saudi Arabia plans CSP project

13.5.2 National Renewable Energy Programme

13.5.3 Smart grid implementation

13.5.4 Carbon trading scheme and other emission reduction schemes

13.5.5 Storage project

13.6 Key contacts

14. Syria

14.1 Market overview

14.1.1 Impact of Covid-19

14.2 Market structure

14.3 Renewable capacity and generation

14.3.1 Installed renewable capacity

14.3.2 Renewable power generation

14.4 Renewable energy policy

14.5 Projects

14.6 Key contacts

15. Tunisia

15.1 Market overview

15.1.1 Impact of Covid-19

15.2 Market structure

15.2.1 Government

15.2.2 Private power

15.2.3 Sector reform

15.3 Renewable capacity and generation

15.3.1 Installed renewable capacity

15.3.2 Renewable power generation

15.4 Renewable energy policy

15.4.1 Historical overview

15.4.2 Renewable energy policy and targets

15.5 Projects

15.5.1 Recently awarded projects

15.5.2 Major upcoming renewable projects

15.6 Key contacts

16. UAE

16.1 Market overview

16.2 Market structure

16.3 Renewable capacity and generation

16.3.1 Alternative fuel and capacity

16.4 Renewable energy policy

16.4.1 Other policies

16.5 Abu Dhabi

16.5.1 Overview

16.5.2 Major renewable energy projects

16.6 Dubai

15.6.1 Overview

16.6.2 Solar IPP Programme

16.6.3 Other projects

16.6.4 Renewable energy policy

16.7 Northern Emirates

16.7.1 Overview

16.7.2 FEWA

16.7.3 SEWA

16.8 Key contacts

Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Major CSP projects in the Mena region ($m)

Table 2: Completed ISCC projects in the Mena region ($m)

Table 3: Major wind projects in the Mena region in the pre-execution phase ($m)

Table 4: Major WTE projects in the Mena region ($m)

Table 5: Algeria power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 6: Algeria planned capacity increases by fuel type (MW), 2015−2030

Table 7: Algeria renewable energy projects underway

Table 8: Algeria renewable energy projects planned

Table 9: Algeria key contacts

Table 10: Bahrain power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 11: Bahrain renewable power generation projects, planned, underway and operation

Table 12: Bahrain key contacts

Table 13: Egypt power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 14: Egypt, renewable energy supporting policies, laws, and regulations

Table 15: Renewable energy schemes by institutions in Egypt

Table 16: Solar FITs

Table 17: Wind FITs

Table 18: Egypt round II solar FIT tariffs ($c/kWh)

Table 19: Egypt round II wind FIT tariffs ($c/kWh)

Table 20: EBRD backed projects, FIT round 2

Table 21: IFC-backed projects, Egypt FIT round 2

Table 22: Planned merchant IPP renewables projects up to 2022

Table 23: Solar power projects in Egypt ($m) under execution

Table 24: Upcoming solar power projects in Egypt ($m)

Table 25: Wind power projects in Egypt ($m) under execution

Table 26: Upcoming wind power projects in Egypt ($m)

Table 27: Egypt key contacts

Table 28: Iran power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 29: Renewable energy capacity from solar PV, wind, and small hydropower (MW), 2010−2020

Table 30: Iran electricity production by fuel type (% of total), 2010−2020

Table 31: Companies with renewable and clean power purchase agreements at the end of December 2019 in Iran

Table 32: Renewables FIT rates, October 2019

Table 33: Iran renewable energy projects under execution

Table 34: Iran renewable energy projects in pre-execution phase

Table 35: Iran key contacts

Table 36: Iraq power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 37: Renewable energy projects planned and underway in Iraq ($m)

Table 38: Iraq power sector key contacts

Table 39: Jordan power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 40: Jordan Installed capacity (MW), 2016-2020

Table 41: Jordan’s CEGCO installed capacity by plant

Table 42: SEPCO installed capacity, 2011-2018

Table 43: Jordan’s renewable energy tariffs

Table 44: Jordan, renewable power projects under execution

Table 45: Jordan, planned renewable power projects

Table 46: Jordan key contacts

Table 47: Kuwait power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 48: Existing power plants generation capacity

Table 49: Kuwait, upcoming renewable power projects

Table 50: Small-scale solar schemes in Kuwait

Table 51: Kuwait renewable sector key contacts

Table 52: Morocco power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 53: Solar power projects planned in Morocco

Table 54: Morocco wind power projects under construction

Table 55: Morocco hydro power projects under construction

Table 56: Upcoming hydro power generation projects in Morocco

Table 57: Morocco key contacts

Table 58: Oman power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 59: Renewable Energy Development Plan – MIS (MW), 2019−2025

Table 60: Renewable power projects under execution

Table 61: Major renewable power projects, planned

Table 62: Oman key contacts

Table 63: Qatar power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 64: Renewable power projects, planned and underway

Table 65: Qatar key contacts

Table 66: Saudi Arabia power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 67: Saudi Arabia, Upcoming Renewables projects in 2021

Table 68: Repdo renewable energy projects by capacity (MW) and value ($m)

Table 69: List of bidders with prices for the 300MW PV solar project at Sakaka

Table 70: List of bidders with price for the 400MW wind scheme at Dumat al-Jandal

Table 71: Repdo third round projects

Table 72: Saudi Arabia, renewable energy projects under execution ($m)

Table 73: Saudi Arabia, upcoming renewable energy projects ($m)

Table 74: Saudi Arabia key contacts

Table 75: Syria power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 76: Syria planned renewable energy projects

Table 77: Syria key contacts

Table 78: Tunisia power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 79: STEG’s technical and financial performance indicators, 2014-2017

Table 80: Main indicators

Table 81: Hydropower plants

Table 82: Wind power plants

Table 83: Tunisia 2020-Renewable energy projects

Table 84: Renewable power projects planned in Tunisia

Table 85: Tunisia key contacts

Table 86: UAE power and renewables sector key facts, 2020

Table 87: Abu Dhabi power and renewables sector key facts

Table 88: Abu Dhabi renewable power generation projects, planned and underway by value ($m)

Table 89: Dubai power and renewables sector key facts

Table 90: Dubai renewable power generation projects, planned and underway by value ($m)

Table 91: Northern Emirates renewable power generation projects, planned and underway by value ($m)

Table 92: UAE Renewables sector key contacts

List of Figures

Figure 1: The carbon challenge

Figure 2: Carbon dioxide emissions per capita (tonnes), 2019

Figure 3: Carbon emissions by country (million tonnes of carbon dioxide), 2009-2019

Figure 4: GCC solar photovoltaic IPP tariffs, Low bid ‒ LCOE ($cents/kWh)

Figure 5: Renewable power project contract awards ($m), 2019‒2020

Figure 6: Renewable power project award pipeline ($m)

Figure 7: GCC countries renewable energy targets

Figure 8: LCOE of different forms of technology ($/MWh)

Figure 9: Untapped potential of renewable energy sources by region

Figure 10: PV technologies

Figure 11: Efficiency of solar cells in laboratory tests

Figure 12: Global Cumulative Solar PV Installation by Region , 2019

Figure 13: Projected growth of CSP generated electricity (TWh a year), 2010−2050

Figure 14: The Ain Beni Mathar ISCC

Figure 15: Configuration of a wind turbine

Figure 16: Indexed average cost of onshore wind and utility-scale solar PV

Figure 17: Hydrogen applications and decarbonisation

Figure 18: Green hydrogen production, conversion and end uses across the energy system

Figure 19: Middle East hydroden projects and agreements

Figure 20: Hydrogen export potential per country

Figure 21: Forecasted battery storage dedicated to the power sector by region (GWh)

Figure 22: Algeria’s installed generation capacity by fuel type in 2020 (MW)

Figure 23: Oil fields in the Divided Zone

Figure 24: Algeria installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015−2030

Figure 25: Algeria installed renewable capacity by fuel type (per cent), 2015−2020 (Phase 1)

Figure 26: Algeria installed renewable capacity by fuel type (per cent), 2021−2030 (Phase 2)

Figure 27: Algeria annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2015−2030

Figure 28: Bahrain installed renewable capacity by fuel type (MW), 2015-2030

Figure 29: Bahrain annual renewable power generation by fuel type (GWh), 2015-2030

Figure 30: Renewable energy projects, 2011-2020 ($m)

Figure 31: Structure of the Egyptian electricity sector

Figure 32: Egypt installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015-2030

Figure 33: Egypt annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2015-2030

Figure 34: Total renewables installed capacity by technology (%), 2020

Figure 35: Evolution of installed power capacity (GW) by fuel-type as in the ISES, 2019-2035

Figure 36: Iran installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015-2030

Figure 37: Iran installed renewable capacity by technology (%), 2020

Figure 38: Iran annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2015-2030

Figure 39: Iran renewable energy installations

Figure 40: Iraq installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015−2030

Figure 41: Iraq annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2015−2030

Figure 42: Comparison of LCOE of solar power and electricity from oil and gas ($/MWh), 2015-2030

Figure 43: Comparison of peak electricity demand and average power generation in Iraqi Kurdistan (MW), 2004-2017

Figure 44: Structure of the KRG Electricity Ministry

Figure 45: Kurdistan region location of existing power generating plants

Figure 46: Jordan electricity sector

Figure 47: Jordan, measures to integrate high shares of variable renewables in the power mix

Figure 48: Jordan installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015-2030

Figure 49: Location of CEGCO power plants in Jordan

Figure 50: Jordan renewable power generation (GWh), 2015-2030

Figure 51: Spatial distribution of global solar irradiation in kWh/m2 resource maps for Jordan

Figure 52: Spatial distribution of wind irradiation in Jordan

Figure 53: Jordan, renewable energy financing landscape

Figure 54: Kuwait installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015-2030

Figure 55: Kuwait annual renewable power generation (GWh), Kuwait, 2015-2030

Figure 56: Solar thermal electricity generating potential in Kuwait

Figure 57: Proposed output levels from the Al-Abdaliya ISCC

Figure 58: Morocco installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015-2030

Figure 59: Morocco annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2015-2030

Figure 60: Morocco target fuel mix (%), 2020

Figure 61: Solar radiation map of Morocco

Figure 62: Wind map of Morocco

Figure 63: Renewable energy power contract awards, 2010−2020 ($m)

Figure 64: The MIS and Salalah systems

Figure 65: Oman installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015−2030

Figure 66: Oman annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2015−2030

Figure 67: Global solar radiation average (kWh/m2/d)

Figure 68: Annual direct normal irradiance map of Oman*

Figure 69: Qatar installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015-2030

Figure 70: Qatar annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2015-2030

Figure 71: Institutional structure of decision-making in the Saudi Arabia energy sector

Figure 72: Saudi Arabia’s electricity industry structure, 2020

Figure 73: Saudi Arabia installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015-2030

Figure 74: Saudi Arabia annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2015-2030

Figure 75: NREP 2030 Renewables Target

Figure 76: Syria, Operational power plants

Figure 77: Syria Power Sector Structure

Figure 78: Syria installed renewable capacity by fuel type (MW), 2015-2030

Figure 79: Syria annual renewable power generation by fuel type (GWh), 2015-2030

Figure 80: Syria total installed renewable capacity (MW) and annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2015-2030

Figure 81: Institutional Organisation of the Tunisian Power Sector

Figure 82: Tunisia installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015-2030

Figure 83: Tunisia annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2015-2030

Figure 84: Targeted share of technology in Tunisian Solar Plan by 2030 (MW)

Figure 85: UAE installed renewable capacity (MW), 2015-2030

Figure 86: UAE annual renewable power generation (GWh), 2015-2030

Figure 87: UAE, clean energy targets, 2050

Figure 88: Planned renewables projects value by emirate ($m)

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