The size of the COVID-19 vaccine market across the seven major markets (7MM*) will increase from $13.6bn in 2021 to $19.5bn in 2026 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% should annual vaccination be required. COVID-19 vaccines based on mRNA technology dominate the 7MM in 2021 with a market share of 95.4% and $9.5bn in sales for Pfizer/BioNTech and $3.5bn for Moderna. This report models three different scenarios for the use of COVID-19 vaccines, since it is unclear how long protection from the current vaccines will last. In the first scenario, COVID-19 vaccines will be required annually; in the second scenario, annual vaccination will be assumed for the high-risk population of people 65 years of age and older, while everyone below 65 years of age will need a vaccine only every two years. In the third scenario, the high-risk population of people 65 years of age and older will receive a COVID-19 vaccine every two years, while everyone below 65 years will need a vaccine only every five years.
Philipp Rosenbaum, PhD, Senior Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “In the latter two scenarios, market sales will fluctuate significantly over the forecast period to 2026, since most people in the 7MM will receive a vaccine in 2021.”
Rosenbaum continues: “The launch of a nanoparticle vaccine from Novavax and a recombinant protein vaccine from Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline will decrease the market share of mRNA vaccines from 95.4% to 85% by 2026, but vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna will remain dominant. The market share of adenovirus vector-based vaccines from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson is suspected to decrease from 3.2% in 2021 to 2.1% in 2026 due to their lower efficacy and lack of contract renewal in Europe. Barriers of growth will be low vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy and scepticism, which could be enhanced if more adverse events will be observed with COVID-19 vaccines.”
Key Opinion Leaders (KOL) interviewed by GlobalData for this report agreed that it will not be possible to know how long the protection from COVID-19 vaccines will last until the data comes in, but emphasized that SARS-CoV-2 variants might make booster doses necessary. While some KOLs assume that protection will last for several years, others think that annual vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines will be necessary, similar to immunization against seasonal influenza.
*7MM = The US, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan
*5EU = Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccines – Opportunity Assessment and Forecast to 2026 gives a COVID-19 disease overview, epidemiology overview, current marketed vaccines, unmet needs, pipeline assessment, and market outlook. Report deliverables include a PowerPoint report and an interactive Excel-based forecast model which includes 7MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan) with forecasts over 5 years from 2021 to 2026.
This report includes:
- Executive Summary
- Disease Overview: History of the outbreak, Etiology and Pathophysiology
- Current Vaccination Options: Includes detailed product profiles with SWOT analysis
- Unmet Need and Opportunities: Detailing the major unmet needs with significant KOL insights
- Pipeline Assessment: Includes pipeline overview and detailed product profiles with SWOT analysis
- R&D Strategies: Trends in Clinical Trial Design for COVID-19 Vaccines and Trends in Deal-Making
GlobalData forecast three different potential scenarios for the future use of COVID-19 vaccines:
- The first scenario assumes that annual vaccination with a COVID-19 vaccine will be needed.
- The second scenario assumes annual vaccination for the high-risk population of people 65 years of age and older, while everyone below 65 years of age will need a vaccine only every two years.
- In the third scenario, the high-risk population of people 65 years of age and older will receive a COVID-19 vaccine every two years, while everyone below 65 years will need a vaccine only every five years.
Reasons to Buy
- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the 7MM COVID-19 vaccine.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global COVID-19 vaccine market in the future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments, and strategic partnerships.
Pfizer, BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, CureVac, Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline, Arcturus, Medicago, Valneva, Inovio
Table of Contents
Table of Contents (PowerPoint Deck)
1 Executive Summary
2 Disease Overview
4 Current Vaccination Options
5 Unmet Needs and Opportunities
6 Pipeline Assessment
7 R&D Strategies
8 Market Outlook
10 Contact Us