Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) – Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast – November 2020

Current Epidemiology Situation and Forecast

To date, the greatest numbers of cases and deaths have occurred in the US, India, and Brazil

The global case fatality rate (%) has continued to decline

Increasing uncertainty of infection rates renders forecasting difficult in the worst-hit countries

Region Focus

High positive test Rates in Poland suggest this is not the time to ease social distancing measures

Japan’s initial COVID-19 response was not enough

Not enough evidence to suggest a major role of seasonality in surge of COVID-19 cases in Europe. 

Resurgence of COVID-19 cases in France is real as testing positivity rate continues to rise

Fears of second wave emerge in New York City

Special Populations:

Pregnant women with COVID-19 at greater risk for ICU admission but not mortality

COVID-19 severe complications and mortality risk is minute in school age children.

Impact on Diseases

COVID-19 pandemic could result in increased pulmonary fibrosis patients

Pulmonary arterial hypertension more likely to increase COVID-19 severity

Ulcerative colitis patients are at increased risk of COVID-19 infection


The epidemiology report covers the following areas: current epidemiology situation and forecast, outbreak analysis for key regions, impact of disease on special populations, impact of COVID-19 on other diseases, and data limitations.

Key Highlights

The report provide forecast for peak-week and return-to-normal week that will help the reader plan in this uncertain time, and highlights important populations and regions most affected by the outbreak.

Reasons to buy

Obtain in-depth understanding of epidemiology data for COVID-19 and analysis of up-to-date new research and insights.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary


1 Current Epidemiology Situation

1.1 Current Epidemiology Situation

1.2 New Cases Trend in Top 10 Infected Countries

2 Forecast for Key Markets

2.1 Infection Peak and Decline Forecasts for Select Countries

2.2 Projections of Daily New Confirmed Cases for Select Countries, Since 100th Confirmed Case

3 Outbreak Continues

3.1 Latin America Had a Slow Start but Shows Concerning Trends, and Has Not Yet Reached Peak Cases

3.2 Risk of COVID-19 Surges in India as Outlook for the Future Remains Uncertain

3.3 Strict Lockdown Policies in Peru Have Done Little to Curb the Spread of COVID-19

4 Areas of Improvement

4.1 New Zealand Was Declared Free of COVID-19 After Less than 100 Days

4.2 Positive COVID-19 Test Rates Are Steadily Declining in the US

4.3 Despite the Recent Surge in the Daily Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in India, the Average Case Fatality Rate is Relatively Low

5. Special Populations

5.1 Minority Ethnic Groups Are Two to Three Times More Likely to Die of COVID-19 in the UK and US

5.2 More CKD Patients Are Likely to Go Undiagnosed Due to Reduced Primary Care Access During the Pandemic

5.3 COVID-19 Increases the Risk of Mortality in Patients with Hodgkin Lymphoma

5.4 Viral Infections May Increase AML Risk

6 Data Limitations

6.1 There Are Drawbacks to the Available Data

7 Appendix

7.1 Methodology

7.2 Abbreviations

7.3 Related Reports

7.4 Sources

7.5 About the Authors

7.6 About GlobalData

7.7 Contact Us

List of Tables

Table 1. Current Epidemiology Situation

Table 2. Top 10 Infected Countries

Table 3. Estimated Peak Weeks and Decline to Zero New Cases Weeks for Top Infected Countries (Excluding China)​

List of Figures

Figure 1. Projections of Daily New Confirmed Cases for Select Countries, Since 100th Confirmed Case​

Figure 2. Poland, New Daily Cases (N), and Positive Test Rate (%), March – November 2020

Figure 3. Daily Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Japan, Men and Women, All Ages, March 26–November 9, 2020

Figure 4. COVID-19 Daily New Cases in the 5EU, March 1–November 12

Figure 5. New Daily Cases of COVID-19 and Testing Positivity Rate, France, May 19 – November 11

Figure 6. Daily Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in New York City, Men and Women, All Ages

Figure 7. Age Distribution of Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Pregnant and Nonpregnant Women in the US, Ages 15–44 Years, %, 2020

Figure 8. UK, COVID-19 Hospitalization Number and Mortality Rate, March 1–July 3

Figure 9. Proportion of ARDS Cases Developing Fibrosis (%)

Figure 10. Cumulative Incidence of COVID-10 in General Population and in PAH/CTEPH Patients

Figure 11. 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Ulcerative Colitis 2019

Figure 12. Total prevalence of Major Depressive Disorder in the UK in 2019 versus 2020


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