Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) – Epidemiology Analysis and Forecast – March 2020

First reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, now more than 846,200 confirmed cases of COVID-19 are spread across 180 countries worldwide. China had appeared to gain control of COVID-19. The US is now the most heavily affected country worldwide. Forecasts expect further rise in cases from the US and other countries across Europe. Italy and Switzerland may begin to see flattening of the epidemiological curve.

People at risk for severe COVID-19 include population with underlying health problems, such as respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and some rare diseases. Populations aged 50 years of age and older are also more likely to have comorbidities and develop severe COVID-19, requiring hospitalization. There is no solid evidence to suggest that pregnant women are more at risk of COVID-19, but they are included in this category as a precaution.

The global CFR is 4.3%. In the 5MM, the highest case fatality rate occurs among the 80 years and older age group. In the 5MM (except Spain), the highest proportion of deaths occurs among the 80 years and older age group.

The epidemiology analysis is limited by several data restrictions. Testing availability and criteria differ significantly among countries. All countries’ reported confirmed cases underestimate the number of actual infected people. And mortality reporting is not standardized.

Scope

The epidemiology report covers four areas: current epidemiology situation and forecast, populations at risk, case fatality rate, and data limitations.

The forecast include three-scenario analysis of global confirmed case count, in-depth analysis of top four markets with confirmed cases, and a peak-week and return-to-normal week analysis for the top four markets. The populations at risk area focuses on 9MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China, and South Korea) and provides size of the populations that have COPD, heart disease, diabetes, and select rare diseases. The case fatality rate area provides comparison in case fatality and proprotion of deaths by age in four major markets (China, South Korea, US, and Italy). Data limitations provide readers with in-depth understanding of the caveats surronding the COVID-19 data.

Key Highlights

The report provide forecast for peak-week and return-to-normal week that will help the reader plan in this uncertain time.

Reasons to buy

Obtain in-depth understanding of epidemiology data for COVID-19.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Contents

1 Current Epidemiology Situation

1.1 Current Epidemiology Situation

1.2 Top 10 Infected Countries

2 Forecast for Key Markets

2.1 Forecast for Key Markets Global

2.2 Forecast for Key Markets 4MM

2.3 Forecast for Key Markets Peak Week

3 High-Risk Populations in Nine Major Markets

3.1 High-Risk Group Analysis: COPD

3.2 High-Risk Group Analysis: Diabetes, Heart Disease, and Rare Diseases

4 Case Fatality Rate Comparison

4.1 Case Fatality Rate Comparison

4.2 Proportion of Deaths by Age Group

5 What the Data Don’t Tell Us

5.1 Drawbacks to Available Data

6 Appendix

6.1 Methodology

6.2 Abbreviations

6.3 Related Reports

6.4 Sources

6.5 About the Authors

6.6 About GlobalData

6.7 Contact us

List of Tables

Table 1. Current Epidemiology Situation

Table 2. Top 10 Infected Countries

Table 3. Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 4MM

Table 4. GlobalData COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Epidemiology Forecast for 6 April 2020

Table 5. Estimated Peak Week and Return to Normal Week

Table 6. Weekly Overview of COVID-19 Epidemiological Trends

List of Figures

Figure 1. Global Confirmed Cases of COVID-19

Figure 2. Global New Cases of COVID-19

Figure 3. COVID-19 in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Nine Major Markets (9MM)

Figure 4. COVID-19 in Patients with Diabetes in Nine Major Pharmaceutical Markets

Figure 5. COVID-19 in Patients with Heart Disease in Nine Major Pharmaceutical Markets

Figure 6. COVID-19 in Patients with Rare Diseases in Nine Major Pharmaceutical Markets

Figure 7. Case Fatality Rates by Age Group

Figure 8. Proportion of Deaths by Age Group

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