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Respiratory Syncytial Virus – Epidemiology Forecast to 2030

The Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) prophylactic population in the eight major markets (*8MM) is projected to increase from over 14.55 million cases in 2020 to 15.64 million in 2030, with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.75%. This report estimates that in 2030, the US will have the highest number of prophylactic eligible individuals across the 8MM, with over 6.53 million individuals. Spain will have the lowest number of prophylactic eligible individuals with approximately 0.66 million individuals.

In the *5EU, GlobalData estimates that in 2030 there to be over 6.32 million prophylactic eligible individuals, while Japan and Australia will have over 2.04 million and over 0.74 million prophylactic eligible individuals, respectively.

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Walter Gabriel, MPH, Epidemiologist at GlobalData, comments: “The primary driver of change in the prophylactic population is the underlying demographics, specifically in the pediatric and elderly populations.”

While RSV currently does not have a known cure nor a vaccine, preventive measures can be taken to help mitigate the spread of infection. As such, understanding the prevalence of individuals who are at greatest risk of severe complications from RSV is critical to curbing exposure of the virus and administering prophylactic therapy to reduce the likelihood of severe RSV infection.

Gabriel concludes: “Although GlobalData epidemiologists do not expect any significant changes that would reduce the size of the prophylactic population, changes may always occur in the future with the development of new treatments for at-risk populations.”

*8MM: The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, and Australia

Scope

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common respiratory infection that most children will be infected with by the time they are two years old. In healthy individuals, RSV usually self-resolves within a week or two without need for significant therapeutic intervention. In preterm and very young infants, the elderly, or those with otherwise compromised immune systems, however, RSV can cause severe illness or death.

GlobalData epidemiologists provide a well-rounded, evidence-based analysis and forecast for the prophylactic populations for RSV in this report. This analysis covered all at-risk groups that are recommended for RSV prophylactic treatment. Several of the segmentations are further segmented by age, thereby providing a granular visualization of the RSV prophylactic and hospitalized market in the 8MM.

This report provides an overview of the risk factors, and global and historical trends for the RSV prophylactic population in the 8MM. It also includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the pediatric and adult populations that are most at risk for severe RSV infection and are therefore eligible to receive prophylactic treatment (prophylactic population). The Excel model accompanying the report also contains the RSV seroprevalent population.

  • The Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Epidemiology Report and Model provide an overview of the global trends in risk factors for RSV in the seven major markets (8MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Australia).
  • The report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the pediatric and adult populations that are at most risk for severe RSV infection and are therefore eligible for prophylactic treatment. This prophylactic population consists of: children born before 37 weeks of gestation (preterm population); preterm births with neonatal chronic lung disease (CLD); live births with hemodynamically significant congenital heart disease; boys 0-2 years old with
  • Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD); children 0-2 years old with spinal muscular atrophy (SMA); pregnant women in their third trimester; and adults ≥ 55 years of age living in nursing homes or other long-term care institutions. The Excel model accompanying the report also contains the RSV seroprevalent population.
  • The RSV epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The Epidemiology Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.
  • The Epidemiology Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Reasons to buy

The RSV Epidemiology series will allow you to:

  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global RSV market.
  • Quantify patient populations in the global RSV market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for RSV therapeutics in each of the markets
  • Understand magnitude of RSV population by prophylactic markets

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

| About GlobalData

1 Respiratory Syncytial Virus: Executive Summary

1.1 Catalyst

1.2 Related Reports

1.3 Upcoming Reports

2 Epidemiology

2.1 Disease Background

2.1.1 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

2.2 Global and Historical Trends

2.3 Forecast Methodology

2.3.1 Sources

2.3.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

2.4 Epidemiological Forecast for RSV Prophylactic Population (2020-2030)

2.4.1 Number of Preterm Births by Gestational Age

2.4.2 Preterm Infants with CLD

2.4.3 Number of Live Births with Hemodynamically Significant Heart Disease and Congenital Lung Disease

2.4.4 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of DMD

2.4.5 Number of Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SMA

2.4.6 Number of Third-Trimester Pregnant Women

2.4.7 Number of Adults Living in Nursing Homes/Long-Term Care Institutions

2.5 Discussion

2.5.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

2.5.2 COVID-19 Impact

2.5.3 Limitations of the Analysis

2.5.4 Strengths of the Analysis

3 Appendix

3.1 Bibliography

3.2 About the Authors

3.2.1 Epidemiologist

3.2.2 Reviewers

3.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

3.2.4 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

| Contact Us

List of Tables

Table 1: 8MM, Summary of the Prophylactic Population in 2020

Table 2: Summary of Newly Added Data Types

Table 3: Summary of Updated Data Types

Table 4: Risk Factors for Severe RSV

List of Figures

Figure 1: 8MM, Rate of Preterm Births (per 1,000 Live Births), 2020-2030

Figure 2: 8MM, Percentage of Adults Living in Long-Term Care, Ages ≥55 Years, 2020-2030

Figure 3: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Number of Preterm Births

Figure 4: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Number of Preterm Births with CLD

Figure 5: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Number of Live Births with Hemodynamically Significant Heart Disease

Figure 6: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Number of Live Births with Congenital Lung Disease

Figure 7: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of DMD

Figure 8: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SMA

Figure 9: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Number of Third-Trimester Pregnancies

Figure 10: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the Number of Adults Living in Long-Term Care

Figure 11: 8MM, Number of Preterm Births by Gestational Age, N, 2020

Figure 12: 8MM, Number of Preterm Infants with CLD, N, 0-Year, 2020-2030

Figure 13: 8MM, Number of Live Births with Hemodynamically Significant Heart Disease and Congenital Lung Disease, 2020, 0-Year

Figure 14: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of DMD in Boys, Ages 0-2 Years, 2020-2030

Figure 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of SMA, Boys and Girls, Ages 0-2 Years, 2020-2030

Figure 16: 8MM, Number of Third-Trimester Pregnant Women, N, 2020-2030

Figure 17: 8MM, Number of Adults Living in Care Institutions, Ages ≥55 Years, N, 2020-2030

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