Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) – Epidemiology Forecast to 2029

The diagnosed prevalent cases of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the seven major markets (7MM*) are projected to increase from 1.87 million in 2019 to 2.1 million in 2029, with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.06%, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

This report estimates that in 2029 the US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV across the 7MM with over 1.4 million cases, whereas Japan will have the lowest number with around 28,000 cases. In the *5EU, GlobalData estimates there to be nearly 640,000 diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in 2029.

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Natasha Karim, MPH, Managing Epidemiologist at GlobalData, says: “The rise in diagnosed prevalent cases are attributable to increases in the HIV diagnosis rate, significant and increasing historical trends in prevalence, and changes in the underlying population demographics.”

Scope

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemiology Report and Model provide an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and global trends of HIV in the seven major markets (7MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan).The report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases of HIV, diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV, and diagnosed incident cases of HIV segmented by age (0–17 years, 18–29 years, and by 10-year age groups for age 30 years up to 80 years and older) and sex. Diagnosed prevalent cases are further segmented by coinfection with hepatitis B virus (HBV), coinfection with hepatitis C virus (HCV), and cases on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Lastly, the forecast includes the prophylactic population on pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).

Key Highlights

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent cases of HIV in the 7MM will increase from 2,134,989 cases in 2019 to 2,332,792 cases in 2029. Furthermore, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in the 7MM will increase from 1,871,183 cases in 2019 to 2,068,647 cases in 2029. Finally, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed incident cases of HIV in the 7MM will increase from 65,128 cases in 2019 to 64,204 cases in 2029.

Reasons to buy

The HIV Epidemiology series will allow you to:

  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HIV markets.
  • Quantify patient populations in the global HIV markets to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for HIV therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

    Understand magnitude of the HIV population by age, sex, coinfection, and ART use.

  • The HIV epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The Epidemiology Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in HIV.
  • The Epidemiology Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 HIV: Executive Summary

2.1 Catalyst

2.2 Related Reports

2.3 Upcoming Reports

3 Epidemiology

3.1 Disease Background

3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

3.3 Global and Historical Trends

3.3.1 Total Prevalence of HIV

3.3.2 Diagnosed Prevalence of HIV

3.3.3 Diagnosed Incidence of HIV

3.4 Forecast Methodology

3.4.1 Sources

3.4.2 Sources Not Used

3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

3.4.4 Total Prevalent Cases of HIV

3.4.5 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

3.4.6 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with HBV/HCV Coinfection

3.4.7 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV on ART

3.4.8 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HIV

3.4.9 Prophylactic Population on PrEP

3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for HIV (2019–2029)

3.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of HIV

3.5.2 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

3.5.3 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

3.5.4 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

3.5.5 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with Coinfection

3.5.6 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV on ART

3.5.7 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HIV

3.5.8 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of HIV

3.5.9 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of HIV

3.5.10 Prophylactic Population on PrEP

3.6 Discussion

3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

3.6.2 COVID-19 Impact

3.6.3 Limitations of the Analysis

3.6.4 Strengths of the Analysis

4 Appendix

4.1 Bibliography

4.2 About the Authors

4.2.1 Epidemiologist

4.2.2 Reviewers

4.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

4.2.4 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

4.3 About GlobalData

4.4 Contact Us

4.5 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Summary of Newly Added Data Types

Table 2: Summary of Updated Data Types

Table 3: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for HIV

List of Figures

Figure 1: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, 2019 and 2029 (N)

Figure 2: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, 2019 and 2029 (N)

Figure 3: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, 2019 and 2029 (N)

Figure 4: 7MM, Total Prevalence of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, 2009–2029 (%)

Figure 5: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalence of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, 2009–2029 (%)

Figure 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Incidence of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, 2009–2029 (Cases per 100,000 Population)

Figure 7: Sources Used for Total Prevalent Cases of HIV

Figure 8: Sources Used for Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

Figure 9: Sources Used for Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV Coinfected with HBV or HCV

Figure 10: Sources Used for Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV on ART

Figure 11: Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of HIV

Figure 12: Sources Used for the Prophylactic Population on PrEP

Figure 13: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, 2019 (N)

Figure 14: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, 2019 (N)

Figure 15: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Men and Women, 2019 (N)

Figure 16: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, 2019 (N)

Figure 17: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with Coinfection, Men and Women, All Ages, 2019 (N)

Figure 18: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV on ART, Men and Women, All Ages, 2019 (N)

Figure 19: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, 2019 (N)

Figure 20: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of HIV, Men and Women, 2019 (N)

Figure 21: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of HIV, All Ages, 2019 (N)

Figure 22: 7MM, Prophylactic Population on PrEP, Men and Women, All Ages, 2019 (N)

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