Heart Failure: Epidemiology Forecast to 2028

Heart failure (HF), also referred to as congestive cardiac failure, is a heterogeneous condition in which the heart is unable to pump out sufficient blood to meet the metabolic needs of the body (American Heart Association, 2017b). HF commonly occurs in people older than 50 years of age, and severity increases progressively with age (Mosterd and Hoes, 2007). The symptoms can develop quickly, such as in acute HF (AHF), at which time the patient needs to be hospitalized. However, in chronic HF (CHF), the symptoms develop gradually (National Health Service, 2018).

GlobalData epidemiologists utilized historical data obtained from peer-reviewed articles and reports to build the forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of HF and the diagnosed prevalent cases of CHF in the 8MM. GlobalData epidemiologists applied the incidence and prevalence of HF drawn from the above sources to each country’s population to calculate the number of estimated diagnosed incident cases of AHF hospitalizations and diagnosed prevalent cases for HF severity according to NYHA functional classification and AHA staging system.

The following data describes the epidemiology of HF. In the 8MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast an increase in the diagnosed incident cases of HF from 2,974,022 cases in 2018 to 3,638,957 cases in 2028, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 2.24%. When examining the AGR of diagnosed incidence of HF in individual markets, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the US will see the highest AGR of 2.91% during the forecast period, while Germany will show the lowest AGR of 1.25%. Among the 8MM, the US had the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of HF in 2018 and 2028, at 1,113,104 cases and 1,437,401 cases, respectively.

Scope

The Heart Failure Epidemiology Report and Model provide an overview of the risk factors and global trends of Heart Failure (HF) in the eight major markets (8MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan and China).

This report includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of HF and diagnosed prevalent cases of chronic heart failure (CHF) segmented by age, sex, and ejection fraction. It also includes acute HF (AHF) hospitalizations, prevalent cases of CHF segmented by New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional Classes I–IV and American College of Cardiology Foundation (ACCF)/American Heart Association (AHA) Stages. Additionally, the model includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for various comorbidities of CHF.

The HF epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

• The Epidemiology Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.

• The Epidemiology Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Reasons to buy

The HF Epidemiology series will allow you to:

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HF market.

Quantify patient populations in the global HF market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.

Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for HF therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

Understand magnitude of HF population by its severity.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Heart Failure: Executive Summary

2.1 Related Reports

2.2 Upcoming Reports

3 Epidemiology

3.1 Disease Background

3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

3.3 Global and Historical Trends

3.4 Forecast Methodology

3.4.1 Sources

3.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF

3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF by EF

3.4.4 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Acute Hospitalizations

3.4.5 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Acute Hospitalizations by Worsening CHF, Advanced HF, and De Novo HF

3.4.6 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Hospital Length of Stay

3.4.7 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Hospital Readmissions (Within 30 Days) Post-Discharge After AHF Hospitalization

3.4.8 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF

3.4.9 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF by EF

3.4.10 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF by NYHA Classes

3.4.11 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF by ACCF/AHA Stages

3.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Heart Failure (2018–2028)

3.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF

3.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF

3.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF

3.5.4 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF by EF

3.5.5 AHF Hospitalizations

3.5.6 Hospital Length of Stay for AHF Hospitalization

3.5.7 Hospital Readmissions (Within 30 Days) Post-Discharge After AHF Hospitalization

3.5.8 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF

3.5.9 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF by EF

3.5.10 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF

3.5.11 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF

3.5.12 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF by NYHA Class

3.5.13 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF with PEF by NYHA Class

3.5.14 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF with REF by NYHA Class

3.5.15 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF by ACCF/AHA Classification

3.6 Discussion

3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis

3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis

4 Appendix

4.1 Bibliography

4.2 About the Authors

4.2.1 Epidemiologist

4.2.2 Reviewers

4.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

4.2.4 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

4.3 About GlobalData

4.4 Contact Us

4.5 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for HF

Table 2: NYHA Functional Classification for CHF (Classes I–IV)

List of Figures

Figure 1: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018 and 2028

Figure 2: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018 and 2028

Figure 3: 8MM, Diagnosed Incidence of HF (Cases per 100,000 Population), Men and Women, All Ages, 2018

Figure 4: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalence of CHF, Men and Women, All Ages, %, 2018

Figure 5: 8MM, Sources Used and Not Used to Forecast Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF

Figure 6: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF by EF

Figure 7: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast Hospitalizations for AHF

Figure 8: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast Hospitalizations for AHF by Worsening Chronic HF/Acute Decompensated, Advanced HF, and De Novo HF

Figure 9: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast Hospital Readmissions (within 30 days) Post-Discharge After AHF Hospitalization

Figure 10: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast Hospital Length of Stay for AHF Hospitalization

Figure 11: 8MM, Sources Used and Not Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF

Figure 12: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF by NYHA Class

Figure 13: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF by ACCF/AHA Stages

Figure 14: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 15: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF, Both Sexes, N, 2018

Figure 16: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 17: 8MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HF by EF, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 18: 8MM, AHF Hospitalizations, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 19: 8MM, AHF Hospitalizations by Worsening Chronic HF, Advanced HF, and De Novo HF, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 20: 8MM, Hospital Length of Stay (Days) for AHF Hospitalization, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 21: 8MM, Hospital Readmissions (Within 30 Days) Post-Discharge After AHF Hospitalization, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 22: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 23: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF by EF, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 24: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF, Both Sexes, N, 2018

Figure 25: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 26: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF by NYHA Class, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 27: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF with PEF by NYHA Class, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 28: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF with REF by NYHA Class, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

Figure 29: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of CHF by ACCF/AHA Classification, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2018

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