EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) – Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a lentivirus that impairs and destructs the CD4 cells of the immune system. This weakens the immune system, leaving an infected individual more susceptible to other illnesses and, over time, impairing the individual's ability to fight off infections.

GlobalData epidemiologists utilized national and international HIV and AIDS databases, surveillance data, and robust peer-reviews journal articles to build the forecast of total prevalent and diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in the 8MM. HIV is defined as an infection with HIV, regardless of the stage of disease. This corresponds to the International Classification of Diseases 10th edition (ICD-10) code B20. Diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV were segmented by age and sex using country-specific data, whenever available; when data were not available, appropriate proxies were used. For Japan, GlobalData epidemiologists provided an alternative forecast for the 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV, which better aligns with the ART market sales data after consolidation. GlobalData epidemiologists also provide an alternative forecast for Japan in the EpiCast model based on the reported prevalent HIV cases.

GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the total prevalent cases of HIV in the 8MM will increase from 3,632,410 in 2015 to 4,266,548 in 2025 at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.75%. The US will have the highest number of total prevalent cases of HIV in both 2015 and 2025 at 1,315,263 and 1,514,925, respectively. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in the 8MM will increase from 2,926,335 in 2015 to 3,616,811 in 2025 at an AGR of 2.36%. In Japan, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast the 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV to increase from 20,438 in 2015 to 25,417 in 2025 at an AGR of 2.44%.

Scope

The Humman Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) EpiCast Report and EpiCast Model provide an overview of the risk factors and global trends for HIV in the nine major markets (9MM: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, and China). For the 8MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Brazil, and China) it also includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the total prevalent cases of HIV (both sexes and all ages), and diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV segmented by sex and age from 2015–2025. The diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV are further segmented into those receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), those with hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infection, and those with hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection. For Japan, GlobalData epidemiologists provide a 10-year forecast for the 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV segmented by sex and age from 2015–2025. The 20-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV are further segmented into those receiving ART, those with HBV co-infection, and those with HCV co-infection.

The HIV epidemiology report and model were written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.

The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 9MM.

The EpiCast Model is easy to navigate, interactive with dashboards, and epidemiology-based with transparent and consistent methodologies. Moreover, the model supports data presented in the report and showcases disease trends over a 10-year forecast period using reputable sources.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Epidemiology

2.1 Disease Background

2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

2.3 Global Trends

2.3.1 US

2.3.2 5EU

2.3.3 Japan, Brazil, and China

2.4 Forecast Methodology

2.4.1 Sources Used Tables

2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

2.4.3 Sources Not Used

2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for HIV in the 8MM (2015–2025)

2.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of HIV

2.5.2 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

2.5.3 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

2.5.4 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

2.5.5 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

2.5.6 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV Treated with Antiretroviral Therapy

2.5.7 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with Hepatitis B Virus Co-infection

2.5.8 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with Hepatitis C Virus Co-infection

2.6 Epidemiological Forecast for HIV in Japan (2015–2025)

2.6.1 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

2.6.2 Age-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

2.6.3 Sex-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

2.6.4 Age-Standardized 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV

2.6.5 Diagnosed 20-Year Prevalent Cases of HIV Treated with Antiretroviral Therapy

2.6.6 Diagnosed 20-Year Prevalent Cases of HIV with Hepatitis B Virus Co-infection

2.6.7 Diagnosed 20-Year Prevalent Cases of HIV with Hepatitis C Virus Co-infection

2.7 Discussion

2.7.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

2.7.2 Limitations of the Analysis

2.7.3 Strengths of the Analysis

3 Appendix

3.1 Bibliography

3.2 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study

3.2.1 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

3.3 About the Authors

3.3.1 Epidemiologists

3.3.2 Reviewers

3.3.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

3.4 About GlobalData

3.5 About EpiCast

3.6 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for HIV

Table 2: 5EU, Total Prevalence of HIV in Men and Women (%), All Ages, Selected Years, 2001–2015

Table 3: 8MM, Sources of HIV Total Prevalence Data

Table 4: 8MM, Sources of HIV Diagnosed Prevalence Data

Table 5: Japan, Sources Used to Forecast the 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV in Japan

Table 6: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV on ART

Table 7: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with HBV Co-infection

Table 8: 9MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV with HCV Co-infection

Table 9: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015–2025

Table 10: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015–2025

Table 11: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Both Sexes, 2015, Cases (N) and Proportions (Row %)

Table 12: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Both Sexes, 2015 (Row %)

Table 13: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases Treated with ART, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015–2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%)

Table 14: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases with HBV Co-infection, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015–2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%)

Table 15: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases with HCV Co-infection, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015–2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%)

Table 16: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015–2025

Table 17: Japan, Age-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Both Sexes, N, 2015 (Row %)

Table 18: Japan, Sex-Specific 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N, 2015 (Row %)

Table 19: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases Treated with ART, All Ages, Both Sexes 2015–2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%)

Table 20: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases with HBV Co-infection, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015–2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%)

Table 21: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent HIV Cases with HCV Co-infection, All Ages, Both Sexes, 2015–2025, Cases (N) and Proportions (%)

Table 22: High-Prescribing Psychiatrists (Non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global Overview of HIV, Men and Women, All Ages, 1990–2015

Figure 2: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages , Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015–2025

Figure 3: 8MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages , Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015–2025

Figure 4: 8MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015–2025

Figure 5: 8MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, N, Select Years, 2015–2025

Figure 6: 8MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence of HIV (%), All Ages, by Sex, 2015

Figure 7: Japan, 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HIV, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Select Years, 2015–2025

Figure 8: Japan, Age-Standardized 20-Year Diagnosed Prevalence of HIV (%), All Ages, by Sex, 2015

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