Major Depressive Disorder – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029

The major depressive disorder (MDD) market is expected to grow from $3.97bn in 2019 to $7.87bn by 2029 across the eight major markets (8MM*) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1%. This report reveals that the main driver of growth will be the launch of eight new pipeline products throughout the 8MM.

Philippa Salter, Neurology Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The MDD market is crowded and competitive, with a large number of products available for the treatment of patients, the majority of which are available as inexpensive generics. The new pipeline products will have significantly higher costs of therapy when compared with these generic products, which will drive market growth.”

GlobalData has identified that some of the key unmet needs in the MDD market are for products that have improved efficacy and safety profiles, and that can show rapid anti-depressant effects when compared with available treatments. In order to meet these needs, several of the pipeline products expected to launch in the MDD market have novel mechanisms of action.

Salter continues: “GlobalData anticipates that the most promising pipeline product will be Axsome Therapeutics’ AXS-05, a multimodal antidepressant that has demonstrated rapid and sustained anti-depressive effects in clinical trials. GlobalData forecasts that it will have the potential to become a blockbuster drug with global sales of approximately $1.3bn by 2029.”

Continued generic erosion will be a barrier to growth in the MDD market, with patent expiries of several key products, including Rexulti (brexpiprazole), which was the top-selling drug in the MDD market in 2019 with sales of $769.45m, during the forecast period.

Salter adds: “The companies that are big players in the market, such as Lundbeck, Takeda, and Otsuka, will face generic erosion of their products, Rexulti and Trintellix, during the forecast period, and so are set to lose their share in the MDD market. Two key future players of note are Janssen, which will have two products, Spravato and seltorexant, entering the market, and Axsome Therapeutics, whose AXS-05 is expected to reach blockbuster status by the end of the forecast period.”

* 8MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Canada

Scope

  • Overview of Major Depressive Disorder, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
  • Annualized Major Depressive Disorder therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns in three patient segments ( Mild, Moderate and Severe) forecast from 2019 to 2029.
  • Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the Major Depressive Disorder therapeutics market.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for Major Depressive Disorder therapy. The most promising candidates in Phase III development are profiled.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global Major Depressive Disorder therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Key Highlights

  • Significant growth is expected in the MDD market from 2019 to 2029.
  • GlobalData’s anticipate that eight late stage pipeline drugs will launch over the forecast period. These are expected to be the main driver of growth in the MDD market across the 8MM.
  • GlobalData expects Axsome Therapeutics’ AXS-05 to become the top-selling drug in the MDD market with sales of $1.32B in 2029.
  • Established and emerging players are aiming to develop antidepressants and adjunctive therapies with a broad range of different, novel MOAs that will enable them to compete in a highly crowded market space.
  • Opportunities are expected for pharmaceutical companies to develop drugs that target treatment-resistant patients, as well as products that improve remission rates and prevent relapses.

Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to:

  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global Major Depressive Disorder therapeutics market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global Major Depressive Disorder therapeutics market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analysing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

Key Questions Answered

  • What are the key MDD treatments in 2019?
  • When will the late stage pipeline products launch, and how will it affect drug sales and the overall MDD market in the 8MM?
  • Which unmet needs will remain unaddressed in the forecast period and what opportunities remain for pharmaceutical companies?

Companies mentioned

Axsome Therapeutics

Relmada Therapeutics

AbbVie

Lundbeck

Takeda

Otsuka

Allergan

Janssen

Pfizer

Sage Therapeutics

Eli Lilly

Intra-Cellular Therapies

Biogen

Luye Pharma

GSK

Merck

AstraZeneca

Bristol-Myers Squibb

Click Therapeutics

Kao Health

Veeva Systems

Fabre-Kramer Pharmaceuticals

Table of Contents

| Contents

| List of Tables

| List of Figures

| About GlobalData

1 Major Depressive Disorder: Executive Summary

1.1 MDD Therapeutics Market Will Grow to $7.9B by 2029

1.2 Key Players Will Struggle to Maintain Their Competitive Position

1.3 Better Efficacy and Rapid Onset of Action Are the Most Pressing Unmet Needs in the MDD Market

1.4 Novel Late-Stage Pipeline Drugs Will Be a Key Driver of Growth

1.5 What Do Physicians Think?

2 Introduction

2.1 Catalyst

2.2 Related Reports

2.3 Upcoming Reports

3 Disease Overview

3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology

3.1.1 Etiology

3.1.2 Pathophysiology

3.2 Classification

3.3 Prognosis

3.4 Quality of Life

4 Epidemiology

4.1 Disease Background

4.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

4.3 Global and Historical Trends

4.4 Forecast Methodology

4.4.1 Sources Used

4.4.2 Sources Not Used

4.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

4.4.4 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: 12-Month Total Prevalence of MDD

4.4.5 Forecast Assumptions and Methods: 12-Month Total Prevalence of MDD by Severity

4.5 Epidemiological Forecast for MDD (2019–2029)

4.5.1 12-Month Total Prevalent Cases of MDD

4.5.2 Age-Specific 12-Month Total Prevalence of MDD

4.5.3 Sex-Specific 12-Month Prevalent Cases of MDD

4.5.4 12-Month Total Prevalent Cases of MDD by Severity for Ages <18 Years

4.6 Discussion

4.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

4.6.2 Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Impact

4.6.3 Limitations of Analysis

4.6.4 Strengths of Analysis

5 Disease Management

5.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview

5.2 KOL Insights on Disease Management

6 Competitive Assessment

6.1 Overview

7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

7.1 Overview

7.2 Rapid Onset of Action

7.3 New Therapies with Better Efficacy

7.4 Improved Safety Profiles

7.5 Management of Patient Outcome Expectations

8 R&D Strategies

8.1 Overview

8.1.1 Novel MOAs

8.1.2 Development of Adjunctive Therapies

8.1.3 Digital Therapeutics

8.1.4 Personalized Treatments/Biomarkers

8.2 Clinical Trials Design

8.2.1 Study Design

8.2.2 Endpoints

8.2.3 Placebo Response Rates

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview

9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development

9.3 Other Drugs in Development

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis

10.1 Overview

10.2 Competitive Assessment

11 Current and Future Players

11.1 Overview

11.2 Deal-Making Trends

12 Market Outlook

12.1 Global Markets

12.1.1 Forecast

12.1.2 Drivers and Barriers – Global Issues

12.2 US

12.2.1 Forecast

12.2.2 Key Events

12.2.3 Drivers and Barriers

12.3 5EU

12.3.1 Forecast

12.3.2 Key Events

12.3.3 Drivers and Barriers

12.4 Japan

12.4.1 Forecast

12.4.2 Key Events

12.4.3 Drivers and Barriers

12.5 Canada

12.5.1 Forecast

12.5.2 Key Events

12.5.3 Drivers and Barriers

13 Appendix

13.1 Bibliography

13.2 Abbreviations

13.3 Methodology

13.3.1 Forecasting Methodology

13.4 Primary Research – KOLs Interviewed for This Report

13.4.1 KOLs

13.5 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

13.6 About the Authors

13.6.1 Analyst

13.6.2 Managing Analyst

13.6.3 Therapy Area Director

13.6.4 Epidemiologist

13.6.5 Managing Epidemiologist

13.6.6 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

13.6.7 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

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List of Tables

Table 1: Major Depressive Disorder: Key Metrics in the 8MM

Table 2: DSM-V Criteria of Major Depressive Episode

Table 3: ICD-10 Criteria of Major Depressive Episode

Table 4: Subtypes of Major Depressive Episode

Table 5: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for MDD

Table 6: Treatment Guidelines for Major Depressive Disorder

Table 7: Drugs in Development for Major Depressive Disorder, 2021

Table 8: MDD Market – Global Drivers and Barriers, 2019–2029

Table 9: Key Events Impacting Sales for MDD in the US, 2019–2029

Table 10: MDD Market – Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2019–2029

Table 11: Key Events Impacting Sales for MDD in the 5EU, 2019–2029

Table 12: MDD Market – Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2019–2029

Table 13: Key Events Impacting Sales for MDD in Japan, 2019–2029

Table 14: MDD Market – Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2019–2029

Table 15: Key Events Impacting Sales for MDD in Canada, 2019–2029

Table 16: MDD Market – Drivers and Barriers in Canada, 2019–2029

Table 17: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for MDD in 2019 and 2029

Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in MDD During the Forecast Period

Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for the Treatment of MDD During the Forecast Period

Figure 4: Overview of Targets of Antidepressant Action on Noradrenergic and Serotonergic Neurons

Figure 5: 8MM, 12-Month Total Prevalence of MDD (%), Men and Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2019

Figure 6: 8MM, Sources Used and Not Used to Forecast the 12-Month Total Prevalent Cases of MDD

Figure 7: 8MM, Sources Used to Forecast the 12-Month Total Prevalent Cases of MDD, by Severity

Figure 8: 8MM, 12-Month Total Prevalent Cases of MDD, N, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, 2019

Figure 9: 8MM, 12-Month Total Prevalent Cases of MDD by Age, N, Both Sexes, 2019

Figure 10: 8MM, 12-Month Total Prevalent Cases of MDD by Sex, N, Ages ≥18 Years, 2019

Figure 11: 8MM, Total Prevalent Cases of MDD by Severity, N, Ages ≥18 Years, 2019

Figure 12: Disease Management Model for MDD

Figure 13: MDD Treatment Algorithm

Figure 14: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in MDD

Figure 15: Overview of the Development Pipeline in Major Depressive Disorder

Figure 16: Key Late-Stage Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for MDD in the 8MM During the Forecast Period

Figure 17: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for the Treatment of MDD During the Forecast Period

Figure 18: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drug Monotherapies Benchmarked Against the Standard of Care (SOC), Lexapro

Figure 19: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drug Adjunctive Therapies Benchmarked Against the Standard of Care (SOC), Abilify

Figure 20: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in MDD During the Forecast Period

Figure 21: Global (8MM) Sales Forecast by Country for MDD in 2019 and 2029

Figure 22: Global (8MM) Sales Forecast by Drug Class for MDD in 2019 and 2029

Figure 23: Sales Forecast by Class for MDD in the US in 2019 and 2029

Figure 24: 5EU Sales Forecast by Country for MDD in 2019 and 2029

Figure 25: 5EU Sales Forecast by Class for MDD in 2019 and 2029

Figure 26: Sales Forecast by Class for MDD in Japan in 2019 and 2029

Figure 27: Sales Forecast by Class for MDD in Canada in 2019 and 2029

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