Asthma – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029

The asthma market was valued at $9.7bn in 2019 across the seven major markets (7MM*), and it is expected to grow to $10.8bn by 2029 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1%, driven by the launch of seven new pipeline agents. In this report we discuss AstraZeneca’s tezepelumab and PT027, Chiesi’s timapiprant and Trimbow, GSK’s Trelegy Ellipta, and Novartis’ QVM149 and QMF149 are all expected to launch during the forecast period. However, despite the number of new agents being launched, the use of the new triple-therapy inhaler class is expected to reduce polypharmacy and the overall global share throughout the course of the forecast period. The main barriers to growth include high rates of genericization and low patient compliance.

Tiffany Chan, Immunology Analyst at GlobalData, explains: “The asthma disease space is fairly mature, with many different therapy options (including generics) already available. However, there is a continued need for more convenient and personalized medications. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData highlighted the need for a personalized approach to asthma treatment, which would ideally lead to complete resolution of the disease.”

Although asthma symptoms can be controlled in the majority of patients using the current standard therapies, the disease remains symptomatic and inadequately controlled in approximately 5–10% of patients. Recently, there has been a shift toward a more personalized approach to asthma treatment, which is reflective of the range of biologic therapies that have predominantly driven recent market growth.

Chan concludes: “In the asthma market, GSK currently remains the leading player with AstraZeneca following closely in second, each with a variety of successfully marketed products. GlobalData expects that competition will intensify further with the launch of novel biologics and triple therapy inhalers over the coming decade.”

*7MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and Japan.”

Scope

  • Overview of asthma including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment guidelines.
  • Topline asthma market revenue, annual cost of therapy, and major pipeline product sales in the forecast period.
  • Key topics covered include current treatment and pipeline therapies, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting asthma therapeutics sales in the 7MM.
  • Pipeline analysis: Comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline drugs.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global asthma therapeutics market.
  • Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Key Highlights

  • The greatest drivers of growth in the global asthma market include the launch of six new pipeline therapies during the forecast period and an increasing diagnosed prevalence in many 7MM countries.
  • The main barriers to growth in the asthma market include high genericization of historical drug classes.
  • Late-stage pipeline products in the ICS/LABA/LAMA triple-therapy fixed dose inhalers, CRTH2 antagonists, and ICS/SABA double therapies are emerging as distinct drug classes in the field.
  • The most important unmet needs in the asthma market are improved drug compliance and personalized therapy for the most severe patients.

Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to:

  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies, using a detailed overview of current pipeline products and technologies to identify companies with the most robust pipelines.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global asthma therapeutics market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global asthma market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Track drug sales in the global asthma therapeutics market from 2019-2029.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED

• Which unmet needs are limiting the treatment of asthma in the 7MM?

• What strategies can the pharmaceutical industry employ to increase treatment rates for asthma? How should these strategies differ across different geographical markets?

• What effect will the launch of generics have on the sales of branded agents?

• What are the main R&D trends in the asthma market and which companies are leading the way? Are there major differences in the mechanisms of action used by therapies in late-stage versus early-stage clinical development?

Companies mentioned

AstraZeneca

Novartis

Roche/Genentech

GlaxoSmithKline

Teva

Boehringer Ingelheim

Merck

Chiesi

Regeneron/Sanofi

AB Science SA

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Asthma: Executive Summary

2.1 Asthma Market to Experience Conservative Growth Over the Forecast Period

2.2 GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca Lead the Way

2.3 Unmet Needs Remain Surrounding Asthma Diagnosis and Treatment Options for Severe Patients

2.4 Late-Stage Pipeline Addresses Needs for Personalized and Convenient Medications

2.5 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview

4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology

4.1.1 Etiology

4.1.2 Pathophysiology

4.2 Classification of Disease Severity

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

5.3 Global and Historical Trends

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.4.1 Sources

5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Asthma (2019–2029)

5.5.1 Lifetime Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Asthma

5.5.2 Age-Specific Lifetime Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Asthma

5.5.3 Sex-Specific Lifetime Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Asthma

5.5.4 Lifetime Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Asthma by Severity

5.6 Discussion

5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis

5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis

6 Disease Management

6.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview

6.1.1 Diagnosis

6.1.2 Treatment Guidelines and Clinical Practice

6.2 US

6.3 5EU

6.4 Japan

7 Competitive Assessment

7.1 Overview

8 Needs and Opportunity Assessment

8.1 Overview

8.2 Accurate Diagnosis

8.3 Personalized Therapies for Severe Asthma

8.4 Increased Patient Compliance

8.5 Lower Cost of Therapy

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview

9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development

9.2.1 Thymic Stromal Lymphopoietin Inhibitors

9.2.2 CRTH2 Antagonist

9.2.3 Inhaled Corticosteroid/Long-Acting Beta-Agonist/Long-Acting Muscarinic Antagonist

9.3 Other Drugs in Development

10 Current and Future Players

10.1 Overview

10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy

10.3 AstraZeneca

10.4 Novartis

10.5 Roche/Genentech

10.6 GlaxoSmithKline

10.7 Teva

10.8 Boehringer Ingelheim

10.9 Merck

10.10 Chiesi

10.11 Regeneron/Sanofi

10.12 AB Science SA

11 Market Outlook

11.1 Global Markets

11.1.1 Forecast

11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers – Global Issues

11.2 US

11.2.1 Forecast

11.2.2 Key Events

11.2.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.3 5EU

11.3.1 Forecast

11.3.2 Key Events

11.3.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.4 Japan

11.4.1 Forecast

11.4.2 Key Events

11.4.3 Drivers and Barriers

12 Appendix

12.1 Bibliography

12.2 Abbreviations

12.3 Methodology

12.3.1 Forecasting Methodology.

12.3.2 Diagnosed Patients

12.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients

12.3.4 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class

12.3.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates

12.3.6 General Pricing Assumptions

12.3.7 Individual Drug Assumptions

12.4 Primary Research – KOLs Interviewed for This Report

12.4.1 KOLs

12.5 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

12.6 About the Authors

12.6.1 Analysts

12.6.2 Therapy Area Directors

12.6.3 Epidemiologist

12.6.4 Managing Epidemiologists

12.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

12.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

12.7 About GlobalData

12.8 Contact Us

12.9 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Asthma: Key Metrics in the 7MM

Table 2: Classification of Asthma by Severity

Table 3: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Asthma

Table 4: Treatment Guidelines for Asthma across the 7MM

Table 5: Dosing of Common ICSs for Adult Asthma Therapy to Achieve Equivalent Therapeutic Potency

Table 6: Country Profile – US

Table 7: Country Profile – 5EU

Table 8: Country Profile – Japan

Table 9: Leading Treatments for Asthma, 2020

Table 10: AstraZeneca’s Asthma Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 11: Novartis’ Asthma Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 12: Roche/Genentech Asthma Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 13: GlaxoSmithKline’s Asthma Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 14: Teva’s Asthma Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 15: Boehringer Ingelheim’s Asthma Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 16: Merck’s Asthma Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 17: Chiesi’s COPD Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 18: Regeneron/Sanofi’s Asthma Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 19: AB Science Asthma Portfolio Assessment, 2020

Table 20: Asthma Market – Global Drivers and Barriers, 2019–2029

Table 21: Key Events Impacting Sales for Asthma in the US, 2019–2029

Table 22: Asthma Market – Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2019–2029

Table 23: Key Events Impacting Sales for Asthma in the 5EU, 2019–2029

Table 24: Asthma Market – Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2019–2029

Table 25: Key Events Impacting Sales for Asthma in Japan, 2019–2029

Table 26: Asthma Market – Global Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2019–2029

Table 27: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Asthma

Table 28: Key Historical and Projected Patent Expiry Dates for Asthma

Table 29: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Asthma in 2019 and 2029

Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Asthma During the Forecast Period

Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents for Asthma, 2020

Figure 4: Pathophysiology of Asthma

Figure 5: 7MM, Lifetime Diagnosed Prevalence of Asthma (%), Both Sexes, All Ages, 2009–2019

Figure 6: 7MM, Sources Used for Lifetime Diagnosed Prevalence of Asthma (%)

Figure 7: 7MM, Sources Used for Severity of Asthma (%)

Figure 8: Lifetime Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Asthma, 7MM, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2019

Figure 9: Age-Specific Lifetime Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Asthma, 7MM, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2019

Figure 10: Sex-Specific Lifetime Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Asthma, 7MM, All Ages, N, 2019

Figure 11: Lifetime Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Asthma by Severity, 7MM, Both Sexes, All Ages, N, 2019

Figure 12: GINA 2020 Guidelines for the management of Asthma

Figure 13: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Asthma

Figure 14: Overview of the Development Pipeline in Asthma

Figure 15: Key Phase II/III Asthma Trials Across the 7MM, 2020

Figure 16: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents

Figure 17: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Asthma During the Forecast Period

Figure 18: 7MM, Asthma Sales Forecast by Country, 2019 and 2029

Figure 19: US, Asthma Sales Forecast by Class, 2019 and 2029

Figure 20: 5EU, Asthma Sales Forecast by Class, 2019 and 2029

Figure 21: Japan, Asthma Sales Forecast by Class, 2019 and 2029

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