Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: Forecast in Asia-Pacific Markets to 2028

Seasonal influenza is a viral infection that occurs annually in the winter months from December to March/April in the Northern Hemisphere and from May to August/September in the Southern Hemisphere, though most of India follows Southern Hemisphere seasonality Two types of influenza virus, type A and B, are responsible for the majority of seasonal influenza infections in humans, and due to frequent virus mutations annual vaccination is recommended. The WHO estimates three to five million cases of severe seasonal influenza infections and 290,000 to 650,000 influenza-related respiratory deaths, most of them in the elderly population. Therefore, many countries recommend annual immunization against seasonal influenza, especially for high-risk groups such as young children, pregnant women, elderly people, and people with chronic diseases, but seasonal influenza is not on the national immunization schedule in China and India.

Immunization provides the best protection against the influenza virus and vaccines have been available for decades with a recent switch from trivalent to quadrivalent vaccines that protect against each two influenza type A and two B strains. Traditionally, seasonal influenza vaccines have been produced in eggs, but a slow manufacturing process and viral egg-adaptations have led to a push for cell-based and recombinant vaccine production methods in recent years.

Key Questions Answered

How will the seasonal influenza vaccine market landscape in the 3GM (China, India Japan) change from 2018–2028?

What are the most promising late-stage pipeline products for seasonal influenza vaccination?

How do the clinical and commercial attributes of late-stage pipeline products compare with one another, and against existing immunization options?

What are the remaining unmet needs in seasonal influenza immunization?

What drivers and barriers will affect seasonal influenza vaccine sales in the 3GM over the forecast period?

Scope

Overview of seasonal influenza, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and current management strategies.

Topline Seasonal influenza market revenue from 2018–2028. Annual cost of immunization and major pipeline product sales in this forecast period are included.

Key topics covered include current vaccination options, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting seasonal influenza vaccine sales in the 3GM.

Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, synopses of innovative early-stage projects, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline products.

Analysis of the current and future market competition in the APAC seasonal influenza vaccine market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Key Highlights

During the 10-year forecast period, there are nine pipeline products that are on track to launch, driving a forecast growth in the 3GM from $914M in 2018 to $1.05B in 2028, which represents a CAGR of 1.4%.

The late stage pipeline for seasonal influenza vaccines in the 3GM includes the first quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccines in China from Sinovac, Chongqing Zhifei, and Wuhan, as well as a quadrivalent formulation of Fluad. Quadrivalent live-attenuated vaccines will launch in India (from the Serum Institute) and Japan (AstraZeneca’s FluMist, licensed by Daiichi Sankyo). Furthermore, two new inactivated quadrivalent vaccines from Biken and Denka Seiken will launch during the forecast period, as well as a novel plant-based influenza vaccine in Japan. Medicago’s MDG-2271 will be the first non-egg-based vaccine to launch in the 3GM, addressing the urgent unmet need of influenza vaccine efficacy by shortening production time and minimizing virus mutations.

Another major unmet need in the 3GM is a high vaccination rate and the lack of government support for seasonal influenza immunization in China and India, resulting in vaccination rates around 2%. Vaccination rates in Japan are projected to remain low due to vaccine hesitancy and skepticism.

Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to:

Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the APAC seasonal influenza vaccine market.

Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the seasonal influenza vaccine market in the future.

Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.

Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.

Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments, and strategic partnerships.

Companies mentioned

Cadila

Denka Seiken

Medicago

Mitsubishi Tanabe

Sanofi

Seqirus

Serum Institute of India

Sinovac

Takeda

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: Executive Summary

2.1 Modest Growth Expected for the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine APAC Market over the Forecast Period from 2018–2028

2.2 Transition from Trivalent to Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccines in China and India, Launch of Specialized Vaccines in Japan

2.3 Higher Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates and Better Vaccine Efficacy Are Major Unmet Needs

2.4 Quadrivalent Inactivated and Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccines Will Launch in China and India, Plant-Based Vaccine in Japan

2.5 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview

4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology

4.1.1 Etiology

4.1.2 Pathophysiology

4.1.3 Symptoms and Prognosis

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

5.3 Global and Historical Trends

5.3.1 China

5.3.2 India

5.3.3 Japan

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.4.1 Sources

5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Disease Seasonal Influenza (2018–2028)

5.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza

5.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza

5.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza

5.5.4 Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza Mortality

5.5.5 Age-Specific Vaccination of Seasonal Influenza

5.6 Discussion

5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis

5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis

6 Disease Management in APAC

6.1 Diagnosis and Treatment Overview

6.2 China

6.3 India

6.4 Japan

7 Competitive Assessment

7.1 Overview

8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment in APAC

8.1 Overview

8.2 Immunization Programs Including the Elderly and Children

8.3 Enhanced Vaccine Efficacy in High-Risk Groups

8.4 Public Opinion of Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: Awareness, Hesitancy, and Skepticism

8.5 Vaccines Leveraging Improved Manufacturing Technologies and Featuring Broader Influenza Strain Coverage

9 Pipeline Assessment in APAC

9.1 Overview

9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development

10 Current and Future Players in APAC

10.1 Overview

10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy

10.3 Company Portfolio Assessment

10.3.1 Takeda

10.3.2 Denka Seiken

10.3.3 Mitsubishi Tanabe

10.3.4 Sanofi

10.3.5 Seqirus

10.3.6 Serum Institute

10.3.7 Cadila

10.3.8 Sinovac

10.3.9 Medicago

10.3.10 Other Companies

11 Market Outlook in APAC

11.1 Global Markets

11.1.1 Forecast

11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers – Global Issues

11.2 China

11.2.1 Forecast

11.2.2 Key Events

11.2.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.3 India

11.3.1 Forecast

11.3.2 Key Events

11.3.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.4 Japan

11.4.1 Forecast

11.4.2 Key Events

11.4.3 Drivers and Barriers

12 Appendix

12.1 Bibliography

12.2 Abbreviations

12.3 Methodology

12.3.1 Forecasting Methodology

12.3.2 Vaccine Coverage

12.3.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class

12.3.4 Launch Dates

12.3.5 General Pricing Assumptions

12.3.6 Individual Drug Assumptions

12.3.7 Pricing of Pipeline Agents

12.4 Primary Research – KOLs Interviewed for This Report

12.4.1 KOLs

12.5 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

12.6 About the Authors

12.6.1 Analyst

12.6.2 Therapy Area Director

12.6.3 Epidemiologist

12.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist

12.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

12.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

12.7 About GlobalData

12.8 Contact Us

12.9 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: Key Metrics in the 3GM in APAC

Table 2: Influenza Symptoms

Table 3: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Seasonal Influenza

Table 4: National Vaccination Recommendations for Seasonal Influenza

Table 5: Main Vaccines and Targeted Population for Routine Administration in China

Table 6: Main Vaccines and Targeted Population for Routine Administration in India

Table 7: Main Vaccines and Targeted Population for Routine Administration in Japan

Table 8: Leading Vaccines for Seasonal Influenza, 2019

Table 9: Takeda’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 10: Denka Seiken’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 11: Mitsubishi Tanabe’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 12: Sanofi’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 13: Seqirus’ Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 14: Serum Institute’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 15: Cadila’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 16: Sinovac’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 17: Medicago’s Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 18: Other Companies’ Disease Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 19: Seasonal influenza Vaccine Market – Global Drivers and Barriers, 2018–2028

Table 20: Key Events Impacting Sales for Seasonal influenza Vaccines in China, 2018–2028

Table 21: Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Market – Drivers and Barriers in China, 2018–2028

Table 22: Key Events Impacting Sales for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in India, 2018–2028

Table 23: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market – Drivers and Barriers in India, 2018–2028

Table 24: Key Events Impacting Sales for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Japan, 2018–2028

Table 25: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market – Global Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2018–2028

Table 26: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines

Table 27: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

List of Figures

Figure 1: APAC 3GM Sales Forecast by Country for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in 2018 and 2028

Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Seasonal Influenza Vaccines During the Forecast Period

Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for the Prevention of Seasonal Influenza During the Forecast Period

Figure 4: Influenza Virus Structure

Figure 5: Diagnosed Incidence of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza, Men and Women, All Ages, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2018

Figure 6: 3GM, Sources Used and Not Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza

Figure 7: 3GM, Sources Used for Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza Mortality

Figure 8: 3GM, Sources Used for Proportion of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination

Figure 9: 3GM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018

Figure 10: 3GM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018, N

Figure 11: 3GM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, 2018, N

Figure 12: 3GM, Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza Mortality, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018, N

Figure 13: 3GM, Age-Specific Cases of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018, N

Figure 14: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Seasonal Influenza Vaccination

Figure 15: Overview of the Development Pipeline for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines

Figure 16: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for Seasonal Influenza in the 3GM During the Forecast Period

Figure 17: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for Seasonal Influenza Immunization During the Forecast Period

Figure 18: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Seasonal Influenza Vaccines During the Forecast Period

Figure 19: APAC (3GM) Sales Forecast by Country for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in 2018 and 2028

Figure 20: Sales Forecast by Class for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in China in 2018 and 2028

Figure 21: Sales Forecast by Class for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in India in 2018 and 2028

Figure 22: Sales Forecast by Class for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Japan in 2018 and 2028

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