Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2028

Seasonal influenza is a viral infection that occurs annually in the winter months from December to March/April in the Northern Hemisphere and from May to August/September in the Southern Hemisphere. Two types of influenza virus, type A and B, are responsible for the majority of seasonal influenza infections in humans, and due to frequent virus mutations annual vaccination is recommended. The WHO estimates three to five million cases of severe seasonal influenza infections and 290,000 to 650,000 influenza-related respiratory deaths, most of them in the elderly population. Therefore, many countries recommend annual immunization against seasonal influenza, especially for high-risk groups such as young children, pregnant women, elderly people, and people with chronic diseases.

Immunization provides the best protection against the influenza virus and vaccines have been available for decades with a recent switch from trivalent to quadrivalent vaccines that protect against each two influenza type A and two B strains. Traditionally, seasonal influenza vaccines have been produced in eggs, but a slow manufacturing process and viral egg-adaptations have led to a push for cell-based and recombinant vaccine production methods in recent years.

Key Questions Answered

How will the seasonal influenza vaccine market landscape in the 8MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil) change from 20182028?

What are the most promising late-stage pipeline products for seasonal influenza vaccination?

How do the clinical and commercial attributes of late-stage pipeline products compare with one another, and against existing immunization options?

What are the remaining unmet needs in seasonal influenza immunization?

What drivers and barriers will affect seasonal influenza vaccine sales in the 8MM over the forecast period?

Scope

Overview of seasonal influenza, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and current management strategies.

Topline Seasonal influenza market revenue from 20182028. Annual cost of immunization and major pipeline product sales in this forecast period are included.

Key topics covered include current vaccination options, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting seasonal influenza vaccine sales in the 8MM.

Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, synopses of innovative early-stage projects, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline products.

Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global seasonal influenza vaccine market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Key Highlights

During the 10-year forecast period, there are nine pipeline products that are on track to launch, driving a forecast growth in the 8MM from $4.6b in 2018 to $6.5b in 2028, which represents a CAGR of 3.7%.

The late stage pipeline for seasonal influenza vaccines, targeting the urgent unmet need of vaccine efficacy, focuses on novel production methods and the improvement and development of influenza vaccines for specific age groups. In addition to new cell-based (Medicago’s virus-like-particle VLP-vaccine MDG-2271) and recombinant influenza vaccines (Novavax’s adjuvanted nanoparticle NanoFlu), universal influenza vaccines are expected to launch by 2028.

The universal vaccine candidates, BiondVax’s M-001, FluGen’s RedeeFlu, and Imutex’s FLU-v, target conserved regions of influenza virus proteins and thus promise to protect against multiple (more than four) influenza virus strains, as well as protect for multiple influenza seasons. GlobalData expects that universal influenza vaccines will have a market share of 18% and sales of $1.15B in the 8MM by 2028. However, their market share might decrease over time, if the vaccines are as successful as promised and reduce the need for annual vaccinations.

Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to:

Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.

Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global seasonal influenza vaccine market.

Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the seasonal influenza vaccine market in the future.

Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.

Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.

Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments, and strategic partnerships.

Companies mentioned

AstraZeneca

Biken

BiondVax

Denka Seiken

FluGen

GlaxoSmithKline

Imutex

Medicago

Mitsubishi Tanabe

Mylan

Novavax

Sanofi

Seqirus

Takeda

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: Executive Summary

2.1 Modest Growth Expected for the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Market over the Forecast Period from 2018–2028

2.2 Transition from Egg-Based to Cell Culture-Based and Recombinant Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Is Underway

2.3 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Efficacy and Vaccine Hesitancy

2.4 Non-egg-based Vaccines Will Take 38% of the 8MM Influenza Vaccine Market by 2028

2.5 What Do Physicians Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview

4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology

4.1.1 Etiology

4.1.2 Pathophysiology

4.1.3 Symptoms and Prognosis

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

5.3 Global and Historical Trends

5.3.1 US

5.3.2 5EU

5.3.3 Japan

5.3.4 Brazil

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.4.1 Sources

5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Seasonal Influenza (2018–2028)

5.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza

5.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Disease of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza

5.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza

5.5.4 Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza Mortality

5.5.5 Age-Specific Vaccination of Seasonal Influenza

5.6 Discussion

5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight

5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis

5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis

6 Disease Management

6.1 Diagnosis and Overview

6.2 US

6.3 5EU

6.3.1 France

6.3.2 Germany

6.3.3 Italy

6.3.4 Spain

6.3.5 UK

6.4 Japan

6.5 Brazil

7 Competitive Assessment

7.1 Overview

8 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment

8.1 Overview

8.2 Enhanced Vaccine Efficacy in High-Risk Groups

8.3 Public Opinion of Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: Awareness, Hesitancy, and Skepticism

8.4 Immunization Policies Targeting Children and Adolescents

8.5 Vaccines Leveraging Innovative and Efficient Manufacturing Technologies

8.6 Vaccines with Broader Influenza Strain Coverage

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview

9.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development

9.3 Other Drugs in Clinical Development

10 Current and Future Players

10.1 Overview

10.2 Trends in Corporate Strategy

10.3 Company Portfolio Assessment

10.3.1 Sanofi

10.3.2 Seqirus (CSL Limited)

10.3.3 GlaxoSmithKline

10.3.4 Mylan

10.3.5 AstraZeneca

10.3.6 Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma

10.3.7 Other Companies

11 Market Outlook

11.1 Global Markets

11.1.1 Forecast

11.1.2 Drivers and Barriers – Global Issues

11.2 US

11.2.1 Forecast

11.2.2 Key Events

11.2.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.3 5EU

11.3.1 Forecast

11.3.2 Key Events

11.3.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.4 Japan

11.4.1 Forecast

11.4.2 Key Events

11.4.3 Drivers and Barriers

11.5 Brazil

11.5.1 Forecast

11.5.2 Key Events

11.5.3 Drivers and Barriers

12 Appendix

12.1 Bibliography

12.2 Abbreviations

12.3 Methodology

12.3.1 Forecasting Methodology

12.3.2 Vaccine Coverage

12.3.3 Drugs Included in Each Vaccine Class

12.3.4 Launch Dates

12.3.5 General Pricing Assumptions

12.3.6 Individual Drug Assumptions

12.3.7 Pricing of Pipeline Agents

12.4 Primary Research – KOLs Interviewed for This Report

12.4.1 KOLs

12.5 Primary Research – Prescriber Survey

12.6 About the Authors

12.6.1 Analyst

12.6.2 Therapy Area Director

12.6.3 Epidemiologist

12.6.4 Managing Epidemiologists

12.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology

12.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy

12.7 About GlobalData

12.8 Contact Us

12.9 Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Seasonal Influenza: Key Metrics in the 8MM

Table 2: Influenza Symptoms

Table 3: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Seasonal Influenza

Table 4: National Vaccination Recommendations for Seasonal Influenza

Table 5: Main Vaccines and Targeted Populations for Routine Administration in the US

Table 6: Main Vaccines and Targeted Population for Routine Administration in the 5EU

Table 7: Main Vaccines and Targeted Population for Routine Administration in Japan

Table 8: Main Vaccines and Targeted Population for Routine Administration in Brazil

Table 9: Leading Treatments for Seasonal Influenza, 2019

Table 10: Key companies in the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Market, 2019

Table 11: Sanofi’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 12: Seqirus’ Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 13: GSK’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 14: Mylan’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 15: AstraZeneca’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 16: Mitsubishi Tanabe’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 17: Medicago’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 18: BiondVax’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 19: Novavax’s Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Portfolio Assessment, 2019

Table 20: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market – Global Drivers and Barriers, 2018–2028

Table 21: Key Events Impacting Sales for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in the US, 2018–2028

Table 22: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market – Drivers and Barriers in the US, 2018–2028

Table 23: Key Events Impacting Sales for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in the 5EU, 2018–2028

Table 24: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market – Drivers and Barriers in the 5EU, 2018–2028

Table 25: Key Events Impacting Sales for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Japan, 2018–2028

Table 26: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market – Global Drivers and Barriers in Japan, 2018–2028

Table 27: Key Events Impacting Sales for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Brazil, 2018–2028

Table 28: Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Market – Global Drivers and Barriers in Brazil, 2018–2028

Table 29: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines

Table 30: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country

List of Figures

Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in 2018 and 2028

Figure 2: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Seasonal Influenza Vaccines During the Forecast Period

Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents Expected to Be Licensed for Seasonal Influenza Vaccination by 2028

Figure 4: Influenza Virus Structure

Figure 5: Diagnosed Incidence of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza, Men, Women, All Ages, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2018

Figure 6: 8MM, Sources Used and Not Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza

Figure 7: 8MM, Sources Used for Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza Mortality

Figure 8: 8MM, Sources Used for Proportion of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination

Figure 9: Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza, 8MM, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018

Figure 10: Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza, 8MM, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018, N

Figure 11: Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza, 8MM, All Ages, 2018, N

Figure 12: Lab-Confirmed Seasonal Influenza Mortality, 8MM, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018, N

Figure 13: Age-Specific Cases of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, 8MM, Both Sexes, All Ages, 2018, N

Figure 14: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Seasonal Influenza Vaccination

Figure 15: Overview of the Development Pipeline for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines

Figure 16: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for Seasonal Influenza in the 8MM During the Forecast Period

Figure 17: Competitive Assessment of the Late-Stage Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects to Be Licensed for Seasonal Influenza Immunization

Figure 18: Analysis of the Company Portfolio Gap in Seasonal Influenza Vaccines During the Forecast Period

Figure 19: Global (8MM) Sales Forecast by Country for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in 2018 and 2028

Figure 20: Sales Forecast by Class for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in the US in 2018 and 2028

Figure 21: Sales Forecast by Class for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in the 5EU in 2018 and 2028

Figure 22: Sales Forecast by Class for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Japan in 2018 and 2028

Figure 23: Sales Forecast by Class for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines in Brazil 2018 and 2028

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