Small Cell Lung Cancer – Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2029
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The small cell lung cancer (SCLC) market has experienced moderate growth since 2016, and is expected to increase further, from $698m in 2019 to $2.4bn in 2029 across the eight major markets (8MM*) at a compound annual growth rate of 12.9%. Growth will be driven by the anticipated launch of 10 pipeline agents and greater market access across the 8MM for premium priced agents. This report notes that the main barriers for market growth include the absence of predictive biomarkers leading to a lack of targeted approaches in the treatment paradigm.
Adam Pearson, PhD, Oncology and Hematology Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “SCLC is a disease area characterized by high levels of unmet need and an area of great opportunity for R&D. Compared to the introduction of targeted approaches in other areas of oncology, SCLC is a market still dominated by generic chemotherapies. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) indicate that the limited understanding of the underlying SCLC biology has resulted in a lack of effective targeted approaches.”
Significant unmet needs are expected to remain in the SCLC market, which present considerable commercial opportunities. KOLs interviewed by GlobalData have indicated that more innovation will be required to tackle this problem.
Pearson continues: “The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of Roche’s Tecentriq in 2019 marked the first FDA-approved immunotherapy for patients with ES-SCLC and represented a positive innovation for patients, despite the marginal absolute benefit in overall survival. Tecentriq, in combination with chemotherapy, gained first-mover advantage in SCLC and future additional revenue streams may derive from its combination with tiragolumab, contingent on demonstrable efficacy in an ongoing phase III trial. Roche’s Tecentriq is therefore forecast to retain its position as market leader in SCLC over the forecast period and will benefit from the lack of effective alternatives in this disease area.
“In the relapsed/refractory setting, the recently approved branded chemotherapy, Zepzelca (lurbinectedin), is expected to be widely adopted, in part due to the market withdrawal of Opdivo and Keytruda in later lines.”
Ten novel pipeline agents are forecast to enter the market in the period to 2029. The majority of these are being developed in China and approximately half are domestically developed Chinese immune checkpoint inhibitors.
Pearson adds: “The last decade has seen an acceleration of Chinese capabilities for drug commercialization and has resulted in the development of domestic brands. This has been most evident in the development of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICI), positioned to be approved across multiple oncology indications. However, the introduction of Chinese checkpoint inhibitors into the SCLC treatment paradigm is more likely to have commercial, rather than clinical implications. KOLs note that new checkpoint inhibitors are unlikely to demonstrate improved efficacy over existing international ICI brands, however the introduction of multiple significantly discounted ICIs may provide pricing pressures for established ICI brands.”
*8MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Canada and Australia
Scope
- Overview of SCLC including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment guidelines.
- Topline SCLC market revenue, annual cost of therapy, and major pipeline product sales in the forecast period.
- Key topics covered include current treatment and pipeline therapies, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting SCLC therapeutics sales in the 8MM.
- Pipeline analysis: Comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline drugs (Phase III).
- Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global SCLC market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED
- 10 late-stage pipeline agents are going to enter the SCLC market from 2019 onwards. Will the impact will these agents have on the market? Which of these drugs will have the highest peak sales, and why?
- What are the current unmet needs in SCLC, which pipeline agents are positioned to counter these unmet needs? What are the opportunities for R&D?
- What is the market outlook in the 8MM from 2019-2029? Considering major patent expiries, launch of new premium priced agents and expected label expansions.
- What are the main corporate trends? Who are the current and future players?
Key Highlights
Lung cancer remains a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide and is a huge global health burden. Small cell lung cancer constitutes approximately 10-15% of all lung cancers and is a subtype characterized by aggressive disease and a lack of therapeutic options, resulting in poor clinical outcomes for patients. The approval and introduction of immune checkpoint inhibitors in combination with chemotherapy in the ES-SCLC setting has finally introduced a novel therapeutic approach in an indication dominated by the use of generic chemotherapy for decades. Despite a marginal (but significant) improvement in clinical outcomes for patients, the introduction of IO represents a welcome change in the treatment paradigm. Other catalysts of significance include the market withdrawal of Opdivo and Keytruda from the indication and the recent introduction of Zepzelca and Cosela into the treatment paradigm. Despite the introduction of new market entrants, significant opportunity exists across several patient subsets and multiple lines of therapy for R&D. GlobalData anticipates 10 pipeline agents to be launched across the 8MM (the majority in China) over the forecast period 2019-2029. The SCLC market is forecast to grow to $2.4B by 2029, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.9%.
This report covers opportunities for various marketed agents and pipeline agents in development across the 8MM, clinical and commercial assessments for agents in late-stage clinical development, R&D strategies, and innovative approaches in development for SCLC. This edition provides an update to the previous sales forecast for marketed and pipeline agents and highlights expected market dynamics by country and class of therapy across the forecast period, 2019-2029.
- The main drivers of growth include the anticipated approval and launch of 10 pipeline therapies (the majority being launched in China) and greater market access across the 8MM for premium priced agents
- The main barriers to growth in the 8MM include an absence of predictive biomarkers leading to a lack of targeted approaches in the treatment paradigm
- A Shift in the treatment paradigm from the use of inexpensive generic chemotherapies to a mixture of chemotherapy/IO, which are associated with higher costs
- The most important unmet needs in the SCLC market include: Limited understanding of underlying SCLC biology, a lack of effective treatments as a result, especially in the relapsed / refractory setting
Reasons to Buy
The report will enable you to:
- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies, using a detailed overview of current pipeline products and technologies to identify companies with the most robust pipelines.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global SCLC therapeutics market.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global SCLC market in the future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Track drug sales in the global SCLC therapeutics market from 2019-2029.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.
Astrazeneca
PharmaMar
G1 Therapeutics
Chia Tai Tianqing Pharmaceutical Group Co
EpicentRx
Jiangsu Chia-Tai Tianqing Pharmaceutical
Shanghai Henlius Biotech Inc
Jiangsu HengRui Medicine
Advenchen Laboratories
Innovent Biologics
Beigene
Shanghai Junshi Biosciences
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Frequently asked questions
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