Epilepsy – China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

GlobalData has released its new Country report, “Epilepsy – China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022”. Epilepsy is a brain disorder characterized by spontaneously occurring and recurrent seizures. The market is heavily driven by the sales of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) targeted at seizure reduction. The AED market is currently dominated by UCB’s Keppra and GlaxoSmithKline’s Lamictal. Although both drugs have experienced significant generic erosion, they form the mainstay of epilepsy treatment in the nine markets and will continue to have significant market share during the forecast period. Other key drugs include older generation AEDs such as Pfizer’s Dilantin, Abbott’s Depakote, and Novartis’ Tegretol and Trileptal which still have significant usage due to their longevity in the market. However, the AED dominance landscape will continue to shift towards newer generation drugs particularly following the recent market entry of GlaxoSmithKline’s Trobalt/Potiga and Eisai’s Fycompa which both offer first-in-class mechanisms of action.

Due to China’s vast general population, which drives the growth of the prevalent population of epilepsy patients, the AED market is fairly large, despite the relatively low cost of treatment. The main driver for growth in this market will be the continued uptake of recent AEDs, a growing middle class with better healthcare access, and increased epilepsy treatment in the whole population due to government efforts to increase healthcare access. However, loose government regulation of patent protection, as well as a reliance on traditional Eastern medicine, severely impact brand drug penetration and profitability in China.

Scope

Overview of Epilepsy including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.

Detailed information on the key drugs in China including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.

Sales forecast for the top drugs in China from 2012-2022.

Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting China Epilepsy market.

Reasons to buy

Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return

Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for Epilepsy

Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential

Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance

Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in China

Table of Contents

1Table of Contents1

1.1List of Tables3

1.2List of Figures3

2Executive Summary4

2.1Sales for Epilepsy in China4

2.2What Do the Physicians Think?6

3Introduction8

3.1Catalyst8

3.2Related Reports9

3.3Upcoming Related Reports10

4Disease Overview11

4.1Classification of Seizures12

4.2Etiology and Pathophysiology13

4.2.1Etiology13

4.2.2Pathophysiology16

4.2.3Prognosis21

4.2.4Quality of Life22

5Disease Management23

5.1Diagnosis23

5.2Treatment Guidelines24

5.3Clinical Practice25

5.4China29

5.4.1Diagnosis29

5.4.2Clinical Practice30

6Competitive Assessment32

6.1Overview32

6.2Strategic Competitor Assessment33

6.3Product Profiles – Major Brands36

6.3.1Keppra (levetiracetam)36

6.3.2Lamictal (lamotrigine)38

6.3.3Lyrica (pregabalin)41

6.3.4Zonegran (zonisamide)45

6.3.5Older-Generation AEDs47

7Opportunity and Unmet Need49

7.1Overview49

7.2Unmet Needs50

7.2.1Refractory Epilepsy50

7.2.2Safety/Side Effect Profiles50

7.2.3Curative/Disease-Modifying Agents51

7.2.4Predictive Tools and Need for More Directed Treatments51

7.2.5Improved Preclinical Models and Clinical Trial Paradigms52

7.2.6Treatment Gap53

7.3Unmet Needs Gap Analysis54

7.4Opportunities55

7.4.1Disease-Modifying Agents55

7.4.2Improved Preclinical Models and Clinical Trial Paradigms55

7.4.3Treatment Gap55

8Pipeline Assessment56

8.1Overview56

8.2Strategic Pipeline Assessment56

8.3Pipeline by Phases of Development57

8.3.1Phase III Pipeline57

8.3.2Phase III Pipeline – Reformulations/New Delivery Systems57

8.3.3Phase IIb Pipeline58

8.3.4Phase II Pipeline58

8.3.5Phase I Pipeline59

8.3.6Preclinical Pipeline60

8.3.7Discovery Pipeline61

8.4Pipeline by Mechanism of Action61

8.5Promising Drugs in Clinical Development62

8.5.1Brivaracetam64

8.5.2Ganaxolone66

8.5.3VX-76568

9Market Outlook71

9.1China71

9.1.1Forecast71

9.1.2Key Events74

9.1.3Drivers and Barriers74

10Appendix76

10.1Bibliography76

10.2Abbreviations82

10.3Methodology83

10.4Forecasting Methodology83

10.4.1Prevalent Epilepsy Patients84

10.4.2Percent Drug-Treated Patients84

10.4.3Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class Based on MOA84

10.4.4General Pricing Assumptions85

10.4.5Individual Drug Assumptions85

10.4.6Generic Erosion98

10.4.7Pricing of Pipeline Agents98

10.5Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study99

10.6Primary Research – Prescriber Survey100

10.7About the Authors101

10.7.1Authors101

10.7.2Global Head of Healthcare101

10.8About GlobalData102

10.9Contact Us102

10.10Disclaimer102

List of Tables

Table 1:Epilepsy Syndromes by Age at Onset (2009 ILAE Classification)11

Table 2:Classification of Seizures12

Table 3:Etiology of Epilepsy According to Age13

Table 4:Etiology of Partial Seizures14

Table 5:Etiology of Generalized Seizures15

Table 6:Some of the Genes Involved in Epilepsy20

Table 7:Summary of Diagnostic Tools for Epilepsy23

Table 8:Treatment Guidelines for Epilepsy24

Table 9:AED Options by Seizure Type27

Table 10:Top Three AEDs Prescribed for Epilepsy by Market28

Table 11:Types of Epilepsy Surgery28

Table 12:India, Most-Prescribed 1st-line and 2nd-line AEDs30

Table 13:China, Most-Prescribed First-Line and Second-Line AEDs31

Table 14:Leading Treatments for Epilepsy, 201235

Table 15:Product Profile – Keppra36

Table 16:Keppra SWOT Analysis, 201238

Table 17:Product Profile – Lamictal39

Table 18:Lamictal SWOT Analysis, 201241

Table 19:Product Profile – Lyrica42

Table 20:Lyrica SWOT Analysis, 201244

Table 21:Product Profile – Zonegran45

Table 22:Zonegran SWOT Analysis, 201247

Table 23:Summary of Minor Drug Classes, 201248

Table 24:Overall Unmet Needs – Current Level of Attainment49

Table 25:Clinical Unmet Needs – Gap Analysis, 201254

Table 26:Epilepsy – Phase III Pipeline, 201257

Table 27:Epilepsy – Phase III Pipeline (Reformulations), 201257

Table 28:Epilepsy – Phase IIb Pipeline, 201258

Table 29:Epilepsy – Phase II Pipeline, 201258

Table 30:Epilepsy – Phase I Pipeline, 201259

Table 31:Epilepsy – Preclinical Pipeline, 201260

Table 32:Epilepsy – Discovery Pipeline, 201261

Table 33:Comparison of MOA of Drugs in Development for Epilepsy, 201262

Table 34:Epilepsy – Promising Drugs in Clinical Development62

Table 35:Product Profile – Brivaracetam64

Table 36:Brivaracetam SWOT Analysis, 201265

Table 37:Product Profile – Ganaxolone66

Table 38:Ganaxolone SWOT Analysis, 201268

Table 39:Product Profile – VX-76569

Table 40:VX-765 SWOT Analysis, 201270

Table 41:Sales Forecasts ($m) for Epilepsy in China, 2012–202272

Table 42:Key Events Impacting Sales for Epilepsy in China, 201274

Table 43:Epilepsy Market in China – Drivers and Barriers, 2012–202274

Table 44:Physicians Surveyed, By Country100

List of Figures

Figure 1: Sales for Epilepsy in China by Drug Class, 2012–20225

Figure 2:Summary of the Pathophysiology of Seizures by Net Increased Neuronal Excitation17

Figure 3:Mechanisms of Action of AEDs at the Synapse19

Figure 4:AED Selection Based on Comorbidity26

Figure 5: Epilepsy – Pipeline by MOA, 201261

Figure 6:Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Epilepsy, 2012–202263

Figure 7:Sales for Epilepsy in China by Drug Class, 2012–202273

    Pricing

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