Construction in Poland – Key Trends and Opportunities to 2025 (Q2 2021)

The Polish construction industry weakened in 2019 following two years of robust growth, with output growing by 6.5% and 11.8% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. The industry recorded a marginal contraction of 0.3% in 2019. The COVID-19 outbreak further affected the industry, with the industry contracting by 3.7% in real terms in 2020. Output in the industry is expected to weaken further in 2021, with GlobalData forecasting a 2.4% contraction; the decline in output is expected to be driven by the weak investor confidence and lockdown measures, which have affected construction activity. This is reflected in the latest data release from Eurostat, showing construction value-add contracted by 13% year on year (YoY) in the first quarter of 2021; this was preceded by Y-o-Y contractions of 5.3% in Q4 and 9.5% in Q3 2020.

GlobalData forecasts the construction industry to recover in 2022, growing by 4.2% and recording an annual average growth rate of 4% between 2023-2025, supported by government investments in infrastructure, residential and renewable energy projects. The Kolej Plus programme was launched by the government in early 2020, with a total investment of PLN6.6 billion (US$1.6 billion), under which the country’s railway infrastructure will be developed in cities which lack railway transport. Adding to this, in early June 2021, Poland’s deputy minister for infrastructure, Marcin Horała signed an agreement with Spanish Minister of Transport, Mobility and Urban Agenda, José Luis Ábalos, towards the development of a Polish high-speed rail system, part of the Solidarity Transport Hub. Furthermore, the government has pledged an investment of PLN75 billion (US$18 billion) in renewable energy projects, which will help the country in meeting its clean energy goals.

This report provides detailed market analysis, information, and insights into the Polish construction industry, including –

– The Polish construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity

– Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Polish construction industry

– Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Poland. It provides –

– Historical (2016-2020) and forecast (2021-2025) valuations of the construction industry in Poland, featuring details of key growth drivers.

– Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector

– Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.

– Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants

Reasons to buy

– Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalData's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.

– Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.

– Understand the latest industry and market trends.

– Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight.

– Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.

– Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary

2 Construction Industry: At-a-Glance

3 Context

3.1 Economic Performance

3.2 Political Environment and Policy

3.3 Demographics

3.4 COVID-19 Status

3.5 Risk Profile

4 Construction Outlook

4.1 All Construction

– Outlook

– Latest news and developments

– Construction Projects Momentum Index

4.2 Commercial Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.3 Industrial Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.4 Infrastructure Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.5 Energy and Utilities Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.6 Institutional Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.7 Residential Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

5 Key Industry Participants

5.1 Contractors

5.2 Consultants

6 Construction Market Data

7 Appendix

7.1 What is this Report About?

7.2 Definitions

7.3 CRI Methodology

7.4 GlobalData Construction

Contact Us

List of Tables

List of Tables

Table 1: Construction Industry Key Data

Table 2: Poland, Key Economic Indicators

Table 3: Poland, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 4: Poland, Top Commercial Construction Projects by Value

Table 5: Poland, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 6: Poland, Top Industrial Construction Projects by Value

Table 7: Poland, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 8: Poland, Top Infrastructure Construction Projects by Value

Table 9: Poland, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 10: Poland, Top Energy and Utilities Construction Projects by Value

Table 11: Poland, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 12: Poland, Top Institutional Construction Projects by Value

Table 13: Poland, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 14: Poland, Top Residential Construction Projects by Value

Table 15: Poland, Key Contractors

Table 16: Poland, Key Consultants

Table 17: Poland, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ Million)

Table 18: Poland, Construction Output Value (Nominal, PLN Million)

Table 19: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions

Table 20: Risk Dimensions

Table 21: Ratings, Scores and Definitions

List of Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: Eastern Europe, Construction Output (Real % Change), 2020 and 2021

Figure 2: Poland, Construction Projects Pipeline by Sector (US$ Billion)

Figure 3: Poland, COVID-19 Confirmed Cases

Figure 4: Poland, Risk Summary

Figure 5: Poland, Risk Regional Comparison

Figure 6: Poland, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ Billion, 2017 Prices and Exchange Rate), 2016-2025

Figure 7: Poland, Construction Output Value, by Sector (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 8: Poland, Construction Value-Add (PLN Million, 2015 Chained Prices)

Figure 9: Poland, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (Chain Linked Volumes, Index 2010=100)

Figure 10: Poland, Construction Production Index (Chain Linked Volumes, Index 2010=100)

Figure 11: Poland, Construction Projects Momentum Index

Figure 12: Eastern Europe, Construction Projects Momentum Index

Figure 13: Poland, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 14: Poland, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 15: Poland, Wholesale and Retail Trade Value-Add (PLN Million, 2015 Chained Prices)

Figure 16: Poland, Tourist Arrivals (Number, Thousand)

Figure 17: Poland, Retail Sales Index (% Change, Year on Year)

Figure 18: Poland, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 19: Poland, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 20: Poland, Manufacturing Value-Add (PLN Million, 2015 Chained Prices)

Figure 21: Poland, Total Merchandise Exports (PLN Million)

Figure 22: Poland, Manufacturing Production Index (% Change, Year on Year)

Figure 23: Poland, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 24: Poland, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 25: Poland, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 26: Poland, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 27: Poland, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 28: Poland, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 29: Poland, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 30: Poland, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 31: Poland, Real-Estate Value-Add (PLN Million, 2015 Chained Prices)

Figure 32: Poland, House Price Index (2015=100)

Figure 33: Poland, Dwellings Completed (in Thousands)

Figure 34: Poland, Dwellings Under Construction (Number, Units)

Figure 35: Poland, Construction Cost Index of Residential Buildings (2015=100)

Figure 36: Poland, Headquarters of Key Contractors (% of Total Project Pipeline)

Figure 37: Poland, Headquarters of Key Consultants (% of Total Project Pipeline)

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