Construction in Nigeria – Key Trends and Opportunities to 2025 (Q2 2021)

Nigeria’s construction industry declined by 7.7% in real terms in 2020, hit by the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The industry plummeted by 31.8% year on year (YoY) in Q2 2020, but it improved in the second half of the year – according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Nigerian construction industry grew by 1.2% YoY in Q4, and 2.8% in Q3. In 2021, the industry is expected to improve, assuming a slowdown in COVID-19 cases and recovery in the global economy. GlobalData expects the construction industry to grow by 3.9% this year. This growth will be driven by a sharp recovery in output levels compared to periods when works were not permitted or were severely restricted in 2020, with Q2 2021 in particular recording high growth YoY, assuming there is no repeat of the strict lockdown similar to last year.

The industry is expected to post an annual average growth rate of 3.2% in real terms between 2022-2025, supported by the government’s plan to invest in the country’s infrastructure and energy sector. The 2021 Appropriation Bill, presented by President Buhari to the National Assembly, is designed to continue achieving the goals of the Economic Sustainability Plan, which provides a road map for post-COVID-19 economic recovery to transition from the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (2017-2020) to the successor Medium-Term National Development Plan (2021-2025).

The industry’s output is also expected to be supported by the government’s plans to improve energy and transport infrastructure. Moreover, the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) will be discussed in the Nigerian Senate, which has faced legislative delays since 2007, and is expected to bring in new investments in energy infrastructure. The PIB aims to increase government revenue from oil and establish a strong legal and regulatory framework for the Nigerian oil industry. The plunge in global oil prices due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which triggered a 60% collapse in Nigerian government revenues in 2020, may lead to a pressing need to reform the sector. Without the reforms under the PIB, the country remains, to some extent, an uncertain investment.

This report provides detailed market analysis, information, and insights into Nigeria’s construction industry, including –

– Nigeria’s construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity

– Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in Nigeria’s construction industry

– Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Nigeria. It provides –

– Historical (2016-2020) and forecast (2021-2025) valuations of the construction industry in Nigeria, featuring details of key growth drivers.

– Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector

– Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.

– Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants

Reasons to buy

– Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalData's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.

– Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.

– Understand the latest industry and market trends.

– Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight.

– Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.

– Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary

2 Construction Industry: At-a-Glance

3 Context

3.1 Economic Performance

3.2 Political Environment and Policy

3.3 Demographics

3.4 COVID-19 Status

4 Construction Outlook

4.1 All Construction

– Outlook

– Latest news and developments

– Construction Projects Momentum Index

4.2 Commercial Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.3 Industrial Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.4 Infrastructure Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.5 Energy and Utilities Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.6 Institutional Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.7 Residential Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

5 Key Industry Participants

5.1 Contractors

5.2 Consultants

6 Construction Market Data

7 Appendix

7.1 What is this Report About?

7.2 Definitions

7.3 GlobalData Construction

Contact Us

List of Tables

List of Tables

Table 1: Construction Industry Key Data

Table 2: Nigeria, Key Economic Indicators

Table 3: Nigeria, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 4: Nigeria, Top Commercial Construction Projects by Value

Table 5: Nigeria, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 6: Nigeria, Top Industrial Construction Projects by Value

Table 7: Nigeria, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 8: Nigeria, Top Infrastructure Construction Projects by Value

Table 9: Nigeria, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 10: Nigeria, Top Energy and Utilities Construction Projects by Value

Table 11: Nigeria, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 12: Nigeria, Top Institutional Construction Projects by Value

Table 13: Nigeria, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 14: Nigeria, Top Residential Construction Projects by Value

Table 15: Nigeria, Key Contractors

Table 16: Nigeria, Key Consultants

Table 17: Nigeria, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ Million)

Table 18: Nigeria, Construction Output Value (Nominal, NGN Billion)

Table 19: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions

List of Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: Sub-Saharan Africa, Construction Output (Real % Change), 2020 and 2021

Figure 2: Nigeria, Construction Projects Pipeline by Sector (US$ Billion)

Figure 3: Nigeria, COVID-19 Confirmed Cases

Figure 4: Nigeria, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ Billion, 2017 Prices and Exchange Rate), 2016-2025

Figure 5: Nigeria, Construction Output Value, by Sector (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 6: Nigeria, Construction Value-Add (NGN Million, 2010 Constant Prices)

Figure 7: Nigeria, Construction Projects Momentum Index

Figure 8: Nigeria, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 9: Nigeria, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 10: Nigeria, Accommodation and Food Services Value-Add (NGN Million, 2010 Constant Prices)

Figure 11: Nigeria, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 12: Nigeria, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 13: Nigeria, Manufacturing Value-Add (NGN Billion, 2010 Constant Prices)

Figure 14: Nigeria, Total Export Value (NGN Billion)

Figure 15: Nigeria, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 16: Nigeria, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 17: Nigeria, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 18: Nigeria, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 19: Nigeria, Telecommunications and Information Services Value-Add (NGN Billion, 2010 Constant Prices)

Figure 20: Nigeria, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 21: Nigeria, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 22: Nigeria, Education Sector Value-Add (NGN Million, 2010 Constant Prices)

Figure 23: Nigeria, Human Health and Social Services Value-Add (NGN Million, 2010 Constant Prices)

Figure 24: Nigeria, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 25: Nigeria, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 26: Nigeria, Real Estate Value-Add (NGN Billion, 2010 Constant Prices)

Figure 27: Nigeria, Headquarters of Key Contractors (% of Total Project Pipeline)

Figure 28: Nigeria, Headquarters of Key Consultants (% of Total Project Pipeline)

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