Construction in Mexico – Key Trends and Opportunities to 2025 (Q2 2021)

Mexico’s construction industry is expected to partly recover by 9.8% in 2021, and 3.9% in 2022 before stabilizing to an annual average rate of 2.2% over the remaining of the forecast period (2023-2025). The relatively high short-term forecasts for the country’s construction industry largely reflect favorable base effects and assumes that construction activity will continue to gradually rebound in the next quarters, as the rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations will allow more restrictions to be lifted in the coming months, especially in hard-hit sectors such as tourism. Unlike other countries in Latin America, Mexico’s vaccination program has helped keep coronavirus infection rates low in the past few months.

However, many challenges remain. While the government’s recently-launched infrastructure investment plans, higher oil prices, a strong US recovery, and lower interest rates should also bode well for the industry and the broader economy in the near term, the lack of a significant relief package to mitigate the fallout from the pandemic, together with limited spending on public works, rising inflation, high unemployment levels, and uncertainty over government policies are likely to further undermine consumer and business confidence and hold back investment in the sector over the rest of the year.

For instance, the focus of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO) on implementing policies that seek to shore up Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), the struggling state oil company, and strengthen state utilities such as the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) are likely to continue to discourage much-needed foreign and private investment in the industry in the coming years, especially, in the energy sector. In early March, Mexico’s congress approved the controversial energy reform of President AMLO to modify several articles of the country’s electricity industry law, which will largely benefit the CFE and prioritize its costlier and dirtier power generation projects over cheap renewables projects.

This report provides detailed market analysis, information, and insights into Mexico’s construction industry, including –

– Mexico’s construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity

– Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in Mexico’s construction industry

– Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Mexico. It provides –

– Historical (2016-2020) and forecast (2021-2025) valuations of the construction industry in Mexico, featuring details of key growth drivers.

– Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector

– Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.

– Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants

Reasons to buy

– Identify and evaluate market opportunities using GlobalData's standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies.

– Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts.

– Understand the latest industry and market trends.

– Formulate and validate strategy using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight.

– Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures.

– Evaluate competitive risk and success factors.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary

2 Construction Industry: At-a-Glance

3 Context

3.1 Economic Performance

3.2 Political Environment and Policy

3.3 Demographics

3.4 COVID-19 Status

3.5 Risk Profile

4 Construction Outlook

4.1 All Construction

– Outlook

– Latest news and developments

– Construction Projects Momentum Index

4.2 Commercial Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.3 Industrial Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.4 Infrastructure Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.5 Energy and Utilities Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.6 Institutional Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

4.7 Residential Construction

– Outlook

– Project analytics

– Latest news and developments

5 Key Industry Participants

5.1 Contractors

5.2 Consultants

6 Construction Market Data

7 Appendix

7.1 What is this Report About?

7.2 Definitions

7.3 CRI Methodology

7.4 GlobalData Construction

Contact Us

List of Tables

List of Tables

Table 1: Construction Industry Key Data

Table 2: Mexico, Key Economic Indicators

Table 3: Mexico, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 4: Mexico, Top Commercial Construction Projects by Value

Table 5: Mexico, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 6: Mexico, Top Industrial Construction Projects by Value

Table 7: Mexico, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 8: Mexico, Top Infrastructure Construction Projects by Value

Table 9: Mexico, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 10: Mexico, Top Energy and Utilities Construction Projects by Value

Table 11: Mexico, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 12: Mexico, Top Institutional Construction Projects by Value

Table 13: Mexico, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2016-2025

Table 14: Mexico, Top Residential Construction Projects by Value

Table 15: Mexico, Key Contractors

Table 16: Mexico, Key Consultants

Table 17: Mexico, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ Million)

Table 18: Mexico, Construction Output Value (Nominal, MXN Billion)

Table 19: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions

Table 20: Risk Dimensions

Table 21: Ratings, Scores and Definitions

List of Figures

List of Figures

Figure 1: South and Central America, Construction Output (Real % Change), 2020 and 2021

Figure 2: Mexico, Construction Projects Pipeline by Sector (US$ Billion)

Figure 3: Mexico, COVID-19 Confirmed Cases

Figure 4: Mexico, Risk Summary

Figure 5: Mexico, Risk Regional Comparison

Figure 6: Mexico, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ Billion, 2017 Prices and Exchange Rate), 2016-2025

Figure 7: Mexico, Construction Output Value, by Sector (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 8: Mexico, Construction Value-Add, 2013 Prices, % Change YoY

Figure 9: Mexico, Construction Production Volume Index (2013=100), % Change YoY

Figure 10: Mexico, Gross Fixed Investment Index (2013=100), % Change YoY

Figure 11: Mexico, Construction Projects Momentum Index

Figure 12: Mexico, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 13: Mexico, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 14: Mexico, Total International Tourist Arrivals (in Thousands), % Change YoY

Figure 15: Mexico, Wholesale and Retail Trade Value-Add, In 2013 Prices, % Change YoY

Figure 16: Mexico, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 17: Mexico, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 18: Mexico, Manufacturing Value-Add (MXN Billion, 2013 Prices), % Change YoY

Figure 19: Mexico, Industrial and Manufacturing Production Volume Index (Unadjusted, 2013=100), % Change YoY

Figure 20: Mexico, Total Merchandise Exports (US$ Million), % Change YoY

Figure 21: Mexico, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 22: Mexico, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 23: Mexico, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 24: Mexico, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 25: Mexico, Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electrical Energy Value-Add (MXN Billion, 2013 Prices), % Change YoY

Figure 26: Mexico, Telecommunications Value-Add (MXN Billion, 2013 Prices), % Change YoY

Figure 27: Mexico, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 28: Mexico, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 29: Mexico, Value-add of Education, Health and Social Care Services, 2013 Prices, % Change YoY

Figure 30: Mexico, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real, US$ Million), 2016-2025

Figure 31: Mexico, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage (US$ Million)

Figure 32: Mexico, Real Estate Services Value-Add (MXN Billion, 2013 Prices), % Change YoY

Figure 33: Mexico, Gross Fixed Investment on Residential Buildings, 2013-100, % Change YoY

Figure 34: Mexico, Headquarters of Key Contractors (% of Total Project Pipeline)

Figure 35: Mexico, Headquarters of Key Consultants (% of Total Project Pipeline)

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