Prospects for Public Infrastructure Projects, Asia-Pacific

Infrastructure investment in Asia Pacific had been substantial prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, with compound annual growth of 5.7% in real infrastructure construction output value between 2014 – 2019, according to GlobalData. Growth in the region was driven primarily by emerging economies, which recorded growth of 7.6% over the period, compared to a growth of 0.3% in advanced economies. Rising incomes, population growth and increasing urbanization in emerging nations all drove the need to invest in greater, and improved, infrastructure. However, with the pandemic significantly impacting economies across the region, growth trends diverged in 2020. While growth in real infrastructure output value increased to 10.6% in emerging nations, up from 7.7% in 2019, when excluding China from the cohort this falls to a contraction of 5.9%, down from growth of 4.9% in 2019. In contrast, in advanced economies growth rose to 1.2% in 2020, up from a contraction of 0.4% in 2019.

Despite the recovery from the pandemic being more visible in 2021, economic prospects across much of Asia Pacific remain uncertain. The economic recovery in the region has generally followed the divergent trend seen worldwide, with advanced economies faring significantly better than their emerging neighbours, though outliers exist, such as Vietnam. Difficulties in procuring sufficient numbers of vaccines and the slow progress of vaccination programmes, particularly in emerging economies, are likely to lead to some continuation of lockdowns and other restrictions in affected nations in 2021, further hindering the economic recovery. As regional economic performances continue to diverge and the threat of the pandemic persists, the likelihood of economic scarring impacting potential output in those nations struggling to recover will increase.

In order to limit the long-term economic damage inflicted by the pandemic, public infrastructure investment will play an important role. Infrastructure investment generates a significant multiplier effect, the proportionate change in real GDP relative to a change in aggregate spending, incentivising an increase in public expenditure; given the output gaps that currently exist in economies across the region, the economic multipliers generated are likely to be considerable. However, financing this investment will be significantly easier for some nations than for others, with policy responses in 2020 to limit the economic damage of the pandemic leading to a tightening of fiscal space and growing debt levels across the region. The following report highlights the varying prospects of governments in Asia-Pacific to accelerate their public infrastructure pipelines

This report provides a detailed analysis of the prospects for an acceleration in public infrastructure investment, including a listing of key projects tracked by GlobalData.

Scope

– This report provides an overall assessment of governments’/countries’ potential to move forward with (accelerate) their public infrastructure works by considering a series of key factors: the size of the pipeline of projects in each country, the composition of this pipeline in terms of stages of development, the political momentum behind infrastructure investment, the state of the government’s finance, and the economic recovery outlook.

– It also provides analysis based on GlobalData's construction projects showing total project values and analysis by stage of development from announcement to execution.

– The analysis of the size of the project pipeline includes all public and public-private partnership projects as tracked by GlobalData (including roads, bridges, railways, airports, ports, power, water and sewage infrastructure construction projects). It also provides an analysis by all projects at all stages of development from announcement to execution.

– The top infrastructure construction projects in tender, award and execution stages are listed by sector and value.

– It also lays out scenarios (“scheduled”, “risk”, and “accelerated”) to illustrate the possible variation in the potential for spending on the pipeline of projects

Reasons to buy

– Assess all major markets in the region based on their prospects for accelerating infrastructure investment.

– Gain insight into the key policies and issues that will impact the prospects for public infrastructure projects.

– Review scenarios of potential spending on the project pipeline, and access a listing of the key projects being tracked.

– Plan campaigns by country based on specific project opportunities and align resources to the most attractive markets.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Public Infrastructure Prospects

Can governments across the region accelerate infrastructure investment to offset COVID-19 disruption?

Australia – Prospects for accelerating pipeline

Bangladesh – Prospects for accelerating pipeline

Cambodia – Prospects for accelerating pipeline

China – Prospects for accelerating pipeline

Hong Kong – Prospects for accelerating pipeline

India – Prospects for accelerating pipeline

Indonesia – Prospects for accelerating pipeline

Japan – Prospects for accelerating pipeline

Malaysia – Prospects for accelerating pipeline

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