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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Sector Forecast: Q4 2021 Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast

The two top vaccines are messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccines that can be rapidly updated to combat variant changes with boosters. The four drugs with the greatest changes in sales between the Q3 and Q4 forecasts are Comirnaty (BioNTech/Pfizer), Paxlovid (Pfizer), molnupiravir (Merck & Co Inc), and COVID-19 vaccine (Johnson & Johnson). Comirnaty and COVID-19 vaccine (Johnson & Johnson) have received Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) in multiple geographies for booster shots. The Molnupiravir has also received an EUA. There are currently 29 therapeutic drugs in development for COVID-19 with sales forecast data available. This increase in sales can be attributed to the potential success of oral therapies, Merck’s molnupiravir and Pfizer’s Paxlovid.

There are 14 prophylactic vaccines with forecasts, led by Comirnaty, mRNA-1273, NVX Cov2373, and Convidecia. Comirnaty is currently the leading prophylactic vaccine by forecast sales. The top three marketed drugs with the highest peak forecast sales are Pfizer & BioNTech SE’s Comirnaty, Moderna’s mRNA-1273, Novavax’s NVX-CoV2373. The top three forecast drugs are all drugs that are currently marketed, suggesting that the vaccine market has matured, and it will be hard for new products to supplant these leading drugs. The current local maximum between 2021 2022 forecast is due to the large COVID-19 vaccination and booster programs currently ongoing in multiple countries.

What are the market dynamics in the global analyst consensus sales in the COVID-19 sector?

Comirnaty remains the leading prophylactic vaccine for COVID 19 with the highest peak forecast in 2021, which is more than a 20% increase from the Q3 2021 forecast. The increase in sales can be attributed to further EUAs received for booster shots across multiple geographies as well as for pediatric administration. An increase in sales is forecast for 2026 due to the possibility of boosters scheduled every three years from 2023 until 2031. Paxlovid is forecast to be the second leading COVID-19 therapeutic after molnupiravir, between 2021 and 2025. Interim Phase II/III data suggest that Paxlovid could reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations and mortality by 89%. Despite it not yet being approved, the US Government has signed an agreement to procure ten million courses of Paxlovid, pending FDA authorization.

Molnupiravir will overtake remdesivir as the leading COVID-19 therapeutic with total forecast sales between 2021 and 2025. It is the first oral COVID-19 therapeutic to be approved globally, being awarded a EUA by the UK MHRA on November 04, 2021. Molnupiravir’s sales forecast on average increased by an unprecedented ~3747% between its Q3 2021 and Q4 2021. Molnupiravir is currently the first approved oral antiviral COVID-19 therapeutic on the market. Paxlovid is an oral COVID-19 therapeutic in Phase III development.

Comirnaty is currently in a co-development agreement with leading pharmaceutical company Pfizer, providing much-needed expertise and support. Comirnaty leads in overall approvals for COVID-19 vaccines within the top economies, having received regulatory approval in 7 geographies, including the US and the EU, as well as receiving EUAs in 7other geographies such as the UK, Canada, South Korea, and Japan. Studies have shown that those who received the booster vaccine displayed 95% efficacy compared to those who did not receive it, as well as increasing the production of antibody titers against COVID-19 and its Beta and Delta variants. Comirnaty boosters have been approved in the US, Australia, Canada, and Japan. Comirnaty has received a EUA for the use of Comirnatyin children ages five to 11 years old in both Canada and the US.

What are the global trends in COVID-19 sales forecast by prophylactic vaccines?

There are 14 prophylactic vaccines currently in development for COVID-19 with sales forecasts available. Four of the 14 prophylactic vaccines are using novel vaccine technologies such as mRNA or DNA vaccines. Prophylactic vaccine sales are expected to dip after 2022 due to the completion of mass vaccination programs. Many vaccines will see an increase in 2026; this may be due to scheduled future booster programs to maintain COVID-19 immunity. Comirnaty accounts for more than 40% of all 2020-2027 prophylactic vaccine COVID-19 forecast sales.

Global COVID-19 sales forecast by prophylactic vaccines

Global COVID-19 sales forecast by prophylactic vaccines

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What are the trends in global COVID-19 sales forecast by prophylactic vaccines?

There are 29 therapeutic drugs with forecasts, including Molnupiravir, REGN-COV2, Veklury. Molnupiraviris currently the leading therapeutic drug by forecast sales. Molnupiraviris currently the first approved oral antiviral COVID-19 therapeutic on the market. Paxlovid is an oral COVID-19 therapeutic in Phase III development.

Market report scope

Key players covered Aclaris Therapeutics Inc, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc, AstraZeneca Plc, JCR Pharmaceuticals Co Ltd, Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc, Atossa Therapeutics Inc, Eli Lily, Bavarian Nordic A/S, BioNTech SE, CanSino Biologics Inc, Capricor Therapeutics Inc, Celltrion Inc, Cerecor Inc, Dynavax Technologies Corp, Eiger BioPharmaceuticals Inc, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd/Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc, Gilead Sciences Inc, GlaxoSmithKline Plc, Heat Biologics Inc, Humanigen Inc, and I-Mab

Scope

This report gives important, expert insight you won’t find in any other source. 13 figures throughout the report illustrate major points and trends in COVID sales forecasts and company pipelines. This report is required reading for:

  • Investors that want to understand how COVID-19 has impacted Drug Revenues in the biopharmaceutical industry as well as identify companies to invest in.
  • Companies that are interested in entering the COVID-19 disease space.
  • Large pharma companies with investment groups or BD teams looking for partnership opportunities in the COVID-19 disease space.

Key Players

Aclaris Therapeutics Inc

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc

AstraZeneca Plc

JCR Pharmaceuticals Co Ltd

Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc

Atossa Therapeutics Inc

Eli Lily

Bavarian Nordic A/S

BioNTech SE

CanSino Biologics Inc

Capricor Therapeutics Inc

Celltrion Inc

Cerecor Inc

Dynavax Technologies Corp

Eiger BioPharmaceuticals Inc

F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd/Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc

Gilead Sciences Inc

GlaxoSmithKline Plc

Heat Biologics Inc

Humanigen Inc

I-Mab

Table of Contents

1 COVID-19 Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast

1.1 COVID-19 Prophylactic Vaccines with Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast

1.2 COVID-19 Therapeutic Drugs with Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast

1.3 COVID-19 Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast

1.4 Top Three Marketed COVID-19 Drugs with Peak Forecast: Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast

2 COVID-19 Prophylactic Vaccine and Therapeutic Drugs: Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecasts

2.1 COVID-19 Prophylactic Vaccines Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast

2.2 COVID-19 Therapeutic Drugs Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast

3 BioNTech SE

3.1 Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast – Comirnaty

3.2 Percentage Change from Q3 2021 to Q4 2021 Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast – Comirnaty

4 Pfizer

4.1 Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast – Paxlovid

5 Merck & Co. Inc.

5.1 Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast – Molnupiravir

5.2 Percentage Change from Q3 2021 to Q4 2021 Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast – Molnupiravir

6 Johnson & Johnson

6.1 Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast – COVID-19 Vaccine

6.2 Percentage Change from Q3 2021 to Q4 2021 Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast – COVID-19 Vaccine

7 Key Findings

Appendix

8.1 Abbreviations

8.2 Methodology

8.3 Related Reports

8.4 About the Authors

8.5 About GlobalData

8.6 Contact Us

Frequently Asked Questions

Comirnaty remains the leading prophylactic vaccine for COVID 19 with the highest peak forecast in 2021 followed by Paxlovid.

Molnupiravir is currently the first approved oral antiviral COVID-19 therapeutic on the market.

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